Articles tagged with "volatility"

Euro and yen bears were caught offside after the FOMC and coordinated US-Japan intervention, while US dollar positioning reached an 11-year extreme.

The US dollar eyes 102 as soaring crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed bets combine to strengthen the bullish case.

If not for the threat of intervention, there's a strong argument USD/JPY would already be trading significantly higher. We examine what's holding it back, and what traders should be watching in H2 2026.

The noise around FX intervention out of Japan had clearly picked up over the past few sessions, and not without reason. USD/JPY pushed cleanly through the 160 handle, printing a high around 160.72, before suddenly dropping off a cliff.

U.S. stocks are pointing to a solid start after media reports suggested the U.S. is pursuing a diplomatic path towards a month-long ceasefire in its conflict with Iran.

Today’s FOMC meeting comes at a time when it is all about energy prices and how that feeds into inflation and in turn policy decisions by the Fed and other major central banks. Unfortunately, things aren’t looking great with Brent oil breaking past $107 after trading as low as $98 earlier in the day. Iran has threatened to attack Middle East energy facilities after Israel struck its largest natural gas processing facility. The latest jump in oil prices means we will continue with our cautious S&P 500 forecast in the near term.

Risks to crude oil forecast remains tilted to the upside as conflict enters third week with Strait of Hormuz the main focal point. Meanwhile, gold tries to find a footing around $5K hurdle as equities bounce back and oil comes off highs.

Crude oil is continuing to dictate direction for markets as we head towards the end of a volatile week. Brent oil traded above $100 per barrel overnight and that saw indices drop across the board while the dollar extended its upsurge. But as oil came back down a bit, those moves unwound in unison, and the euro also found some mild support at its lows. However, the pressure remains with no end in sight in the Middle East conflict.

With Iran continuing to threaten vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the focus will be on how the US and other major economies will ensure the flowing of crude oil via this narrow passage and alternative routes to help stabilise prices. Chief among the measures considered is the coordinated release of oil reserves. According to some reports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering what would be the largest release of emergency oil reserves on record to the tune of 300-400 million barrels.

Rather than easing over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East intensified, and that caused oil to gap sharply higher and stocks and EUR/USD lower. The moves have since unwound a little as investors price in the possibility of a coordinated emergency release of oil reserves by major economies. This is unlikely to provide more than temporary relief, which should keep the US dollar well supported on the dips until there is meaningful progress towards peace in the Middle East. With oil prices soaring and stoking fresh inflation concerns, this is particularly bad news for economic regions that rely on energy imports, such as the Eurozone.

Our S&P 500 outlook remains cautious with a bearish tilt. Unless there’s a sharp improvement in the Middle East situation, markets could head further lower in the week ahead and may even gap lower on Monday.

European markets gave up earlier gains and turned red as oil prices rose to the top of the recent range amid the deepening conflict in the Middle East. With the crude supply disrupted to key buyers, one of the biggest oil importers China has decided to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline to meet domestic needs