
Nikkei threatens breakout as tech rebound broadens
Breakouts across the SOX and Nasdaq are being matched by rebounds across Asia, with the Nikkei now threatening to join the move.
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Breakouts across the SOX and Nasdaq are being matched by rebounds across Asia, with the Nikkei now threatening to join the move.

The trading week is getting underway with renewed bullish momentum across Nasdaq. This is reflected in today's session, where the index has gained more than 2.5%, highlighting a buying bias that has not been observed with this level of strength in several weeks.

Lower oil prices, semiconductor strength and improving technical momentum are helping Nasdaq futures overcome a hostile backdrop of higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar.

A divided BOJ hike has left the yen under pressure and Nikkei bid, with Ueda now needing to convince markets that another two-and-a-half hikes by mid-2027 are justified.

A hawkish Fed knocked equities and gold lower for only a few hours, and both recovered their losses before the session was out.

The Fed was quite hawkish yesterday and we saw what kind of a reaction it triggered in the FX and equity markets. Yet despite those initial falls, index futures have already recovered to around their pre-FOMC levels at the time of writing today. The resilience of the stock market continues to surprise.

Over the past few trading sessions, price action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has started to show consistent signs of weakness. In fact, the index has already posted a decline of nearly 1.00% over the last five trading days, a development that is beginning to reveal a bearish bias or, at the very least, growing caution across the market.

Dow Jones weakness links rising crude oil and Treasury yields with pressure on stocks, while a rebound leaves the broken uptrend unconfirmed.

US equity index futures surrendered an earlier midday bounce in London, as investors struggled to look past an increasingly uncomfortable macro backdrop. Higher oil prices and rising government bond yields are combining to put renewed pressure on risk assets, while the absence of a clear catalyst for improvement makes it difficult to see why investors would materially increase equity exposure at current levels.

US index futures and European markets were struggling to stay afloat after a weaker handover from Asia overnight, ahead of an eventful second half of the week. Rising oil prices and elevated bond yields were once again weighing on investor sentiment, keeping mild pressure on all sorts of risk assets.

U.S. 10-year and 30-year bond yields have moved higher as markets reopen after the Labor Day weekend, with the producer price index and the consumer price index landing within days of each other. The European Central Bank decision sits between them, where the economic projections and Christine Lagarde's press conference carry more market risk than the rate move itself. The DAX has also broken below its 21-day exponential moving average, a sign that momentum beneath a resilient index is starting to fade.

Following a weak handover from Asia, European markets and US indices were under pressure this morning, as rising oil prices and elevated bond yields once again weighed on risk appetite. Among the major European indices, the German DAX will be in firm focus this week, with the ECB’s rate decision coming up on Thursday. That decision is likely to be a hike, as rising oil prices threaten to re-accelerate inflation.

Bitcoin, DJIA Outlook: Bitcoin and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are facing renewed risk-off pressure as crude oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher.
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