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The Fed was quite hawkish yesterday and we saw what kind of a reaction it triggered in the FX and equity markets. Yet despite those initial falls, index futures have already recovered to around their pre-FOMC levels at the time of writing today. The resilience of the stock market continues to surprise.
Recent trading sessions around SPX have failed to show a particularly strong sense of confidence for the equity index. Over the last four trading sessions, average price movements have barely reached 1.00%, a figure that remains below the fluctuations seen weeks ago, when daily moves above 1.5% were relatively common.
A new bullish bias has started to gain relevance in the S&P 500, which is up 2.00% over the last two sessions, mainly supported by corporate earnings that have helped sustain short-term market confidence.
It has not been an easy stretch for the S&P 500. Over the last 5 trading sessions, the index has accumulated a decline of nearly -0.9%, while the broader outlook continues to show a phase of neutrality and indecision.
The trading session has not shown a clear recovery in SPX price action. At the moment, the index is posting slight moves of around 0.1%, with no defined direction, despite the release of employment data in the United States.
As the trading week nears its end, one of the main short-term factors still standing out is the neutral tone in the S&P 500. The index has not been able to define a clear direction and, after falling close to -1.00% in the previous session, it is now attempting to recover with a gain of more than 0.7%.
The S&P 500 climbed to fresh record, recovering from earlier weakness, after reports emerged that Washington and Tehran had reached a provisional agreement to extend their ceasefire for a further 60 days, easing immediate concerns over a broader escalation in the Gulf.
Investor sentiment was marginally firmer early on Thursday, although optimism quickly faded as crude prices turned positive again on reports that Iran’s supreme leader has issued a directive that its uranium must stay in Iran. Whether that is a dealbreaker remains to be seen, but oil did pop higher by $4 on the news, while European markets and US index futures slipped back into the red.
The week remains positive in the short term for the S&P 500, which is currently showing a gain of more than 1.5% over the last two trading sessions. The index has also reached the 7,500-point area for the first time, marking a new all-time high.
The U.S. S&P 500 index has posted one of its strongest streaks of 2026, recording seven consecutive bullish sessions, with a gain of more than 6% in the short term.
Trump just told the world Hormuz is their problem, embedding a structural risk premium into energy markets with no clear timeline for relief
While optimism about de-escalation has lifted stocks and pressured oil prices since the early hours of Tuesday’s session, it is important not to get too ahead of ourselves just yet. For one thing, Iran has just announced that the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen due to Trump’s “absurd” displays.
With Brent crude surging above $100, the Strait of Hormuz now resembling a minefield both literally and figuratively, and Fed rate cut expectations collapsing, the backdrop for risk assets looks increasingly fragile.
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