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Week Ahead: OPEC+, RBA, BOC, and China CPI
Although this may be a light week for economic data, there are plenty of events taking place that could cause the markets to be volatile.
Non-farm Payrolls stronger than expected. Does that change the Fed’s plan?
Chances are that Powell and gang stick to the plan and only hike 50bps. However, that’s not to say that they can’t increase rates later if they deem it necessary.
Forex Friday: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GOLD and YIELDS
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, gold, yen and euro, and look forward to the week ahead.
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Two trades to watch: USD/CAD, GBP/USD
USD/CAD looks to US & Canadian jobs data. GBP/USD rally continues ahead of the NFP.
European Open: Currency markets pause for NFP, Equities pull back
Today’s NFP report is the main event for traders, and the consensus forecasts is for headline job growth to soften to 200k (261k previously), and the unemployment rate remain at 3.7%.
US Core PCE lower in September; USD continues lower
If Core PCE continues to fall over the coming months, the Fed may end up hiking rates less than it expects, or even cutting rates before the end of next year.
US open: Stocks rise and USD drops as core PCE cools
US stocks are rising, building on yesterday's strong gains after core PCE eased to 5% YoY, down from 5.2%.
S&P digesting market’s (over)reaction to Powell speech
Perhaps the markets were not expecting the Fed Chair to explicitly imply that the FOMC will indeed hike by 50bps in December
Two trades to watch: DAX, USD/JPY
DAX rallies post-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. USD/JPY falls to a 3-month low ahead of core-PCE.
European Open: Flash PMIs and US inflation on tap
The US dollar has continued lower overnight following Powell’s dovish comments, with US inflation data having the potential to extend or reverse some of its move.
OK Fed followers: When is a pivot, not a pivot?
Jerome Powell hit the wires and effectively confirmed that the Fed will slow their pace of tightening, reigniting the argument over what a ‘pivot’ is.
Powell's Brooking Institute speech is a dovish version of his November 2nd FOMC press conference
This was the unofficial pivot the markets have been waiting for.
OPEC+ preview: Will OPEC+ cut production again?
According to recent “sources”, OPEC+ is likely to leave production unchanged when it meets virtually on December 4th.
US open: Stocks edge higher in cautious trade ahead of Fed Chair Powell
Stocks are moving modestly higher after a mixed bag of data and ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
DAX struggles as Eurozone CPI stays in double digits
The slightly softer Eurozone inflation data gives hope that the ECB is starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel in its fight against inflation
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Two trades to watch: EUR/GBP, Gold
EUR/GBP rises ahead of eurozone inflation. Gold rises ahead of US data & Powell’s speech.
European Open: China PMI’s disappoint, Jerome Powell in focus
China’s PMI’s may contracted at their fastest pace in 6-months, but hopes of China reopening have remained the focus to support sentiment.
Australian inflation fell… but just ‘weight’ a minute
Whilst Australia’s final inflation print for the year remains high by historical standards, it was much lower than expected at 6.9% y/y
Canadian Q3 GDP surprises to upside but the Canadian Dollar moves lower
USD/CAD made a large move higher today, though it doesn’t seem like it was based on fundamentals.