
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Oil shock offsets mounting AI concerns
USD/JPY has barely moved despite tumbling US Treasury yields and a sharp selloff in AI stocks. Can elevated energy prices continue to offset the pressure?
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USD/JPY has barely moved despite tumbling US Treasury yields and a sharp selloff in AI stocks. Can elevated energy prices continue to offset the pressure?

We’ve heard from the Fed, ECB and BoC with the BoJ up next later tonight and DXY trajectory hangs in the balance depending on how hawkish the Bank of Japan might turn out to be.

USD/JPY and DXY face key resistance levels as markets weigh Fed and BOJ rate expectations, inflation and geopolitical developments

USD/JPY has a theoretical cap after the intervention in July and then the verbal threats thereafter, but the big question now is whether a larger case of carry unwind lurks around the next corner.

Tomorrow brings the Fed and then mid-term elections next week and CPI the week after, so we have a loaded few weeks ahead as USD strength remains in-play.

A rebound from yearly-open support has revived the USD/JPY recovery, but bulls still need a decisive weekly close to unlock further upside.

The AI investment boom rolls on, with Anthropic and Meta helping revive enthusiasm across Wall Street. USD/JPY has responded with a bullish reversal pattern, putting its former trading range back in focus ahead of major central bank decisions and technology earnings.

AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.

As the trading week comes to an end, one of the most relevant developments in the FX market has been the renewed strength of the Japanese yen. This can be seen in the recent performance of USD/JPY, which has fallen nearly 1.0% over the last two trading sessions, highlighting a meaningful recovery in the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar is working on its second consecutive red week and while sellers didn’t exactly pounce on fresh lows, there’s an opening door for bears to make a move.

Thursday’s tech tantrum has become Friday’s fire sale. With Nikkei support giving way and the yen strengthening, could the selling start feeding on itself?

Stocks are selling off in both the US and Japan and USD/JPY has started to show a degree of strain, with a pullback to a key support level even as USD-strength remains in-force elsewhere.

The US Dollar finished last week with a bearish engulf following a four-week winning streak. But the big question now is whether the Euro can pose any form of a recovery.
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