Articles tagged with "james-stanley"

The fear on the long end of the Treasury curve has taken a step back even as two-year notes saw a massive jump in yield last week. But looking at stocks rallies appear set for resumption with the bull flag in the S&P 500 giving way to an early-week breakout.

The response to the rate hike was a strong Thursday outing but ever since Kevin Warsh took over atop the Fed there’s been a shift in equity markets.

The USD closed red last week despite a seemingly bullish backdrop but it made up for it this week, driven by a strong breakout in USD/JPY.

A hike is widely expected tonight but like the Fed yesterday, the bigger question is what else might be in store.

The USD broke out after the rate hike announcement but perhaps the bigger question to USD trends is what the Bank of Japan does later tonight.

It’s a delicate balancing act for Kevin Warsh at today’s FOMC meeting where the bank is highly expected to raise rates for the first time in three years. The Nasdaq 100, meanwhile, hasn’t set a fresh high since the day before his first press conference.

The Fed and BoJ are already expected to hike but the bigger item is what else they might say or do, and that will likely push macro themes as the 10-year note continues to trade at 5%.

Both the US and Japan have rate decisions this week and both are expected to hike rates. But perhaps the bigger question is one of positioning and whether USD/JPY longs will pare back exposure.

It’s a big week ahead with a widely expected FOMC rate hike followed by a Bank of Japan rate decision. But perhaps more pressing are moves showing in US Treasuries and Oil and what that might entail for the macro landscape.

Fundamentals continue to favor the long side of USD/JPY but policymakers on both sides of the pair have taken a firm hand towards reversing that bullish trend.

A hot PPI read this morning leads into CPI tomorrow but it’s the jump in oil prices that can add an asterisk to those data points, as WTI is on pace for its second strongest weekly gain since the massive move that started in March.

Bitcoin broke out later but has held up better since the Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole and even a strong NFP report couldn’t dent the bullish trend.