
Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Coils in September Range Ahead of Fed 9 12 2026
EUR/USD remains locked in a tight September range, with next week’s Fed decision poised to raise the stakes for the next directional move.
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EUR/USD remains locked in a tight September range, with next week’s Fed decision poised to raise the stakes for the next directional move.

EUR/USD has defended pivotal support for a second week, with ECB and U.S. inflation risk poised to test the developing September range.

EUR/USD has retreated from last week’s highs, but the broader recovery remains intact as traders brace for Jackson Hole.

Last week’s main theme has been a shift away from the US dollar towards currencies of economies with stronger fiscal positions and lower debt levels. The brief rally in long-dated US Treasuries helped fuel gains in gold and silver, while the Swiss franc also benefited from increased haven demand. The euro has performed reasonably well too, with the Eurozone economy continuing to expand modestly despite geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices.

While the focal point for last week was USD/JPY, EUR/USD rallied up to a fresh monthly high before finding sellers at the familiar resistance level of 1.1576.

EUR/USD rallied more than 2% from the yearly low, but the first major resistance test should reveal whether buyers can sustain the recovery.

EUR/USD is stuck in a range just above pivotal support as a four-week standoff enters a critical phase ahead of next week's ECB rate decision.

The EUR/USD ended the week on the back foot, surrendering its earlier poise during Friday’s session. From mid-week until that point, the pair had displayed a rather unexpected degree of composure, even as tensions in the Middle East flared up again. A sharp rebound in crude oil swiftly changed the market narrative by mid-week, herding investors back into cautious, defensive trades. By the final stages, however, the mood had darkened.

EUR/USD enters H2 testing a major support zone as a more hawkish Fed outlook continues to fuel the U.S. Dollar. Can support hold or is a larger breakdown underway?

The EUR/USD found some mild support on profit-taking on Friday when US investors were out. I can’t see the pair falling too much lower from here, and think it is best positioned for a recovery among the majors once the dollar-buying runs its course.

EUR/USD has recovered from recent lows, but the rebound is now colliding with a major pivot zone at the May lows- Fed on tap.

At the time of writing, the US dollar looked set to finish the week on a strong footing after a much stronger-than-expected labour market report prompted investors to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, sending yields higher.

EUR/USD is rebounding from key support, but the recovery now faces its first major test at resistance.
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