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Will Powell disappoint dollar die-hards?

Futures markets now tally with many Fed policymakers for the first time this year, accepting the Fed's "terminal rate" will be above 5%...

Federal reserve Eagle

European Open: Currencies tread water ahead of Jerome Powell speech

The USD pulled back yet mostly held on to its post-NFP gains in anticipation of a hawkish speech from Jerome Powell this evening.

Jobs

NFP preview: Imbalanced labor market to remain a thorn in the Fed’s side?

Will this finally be the reading that shows signals the tight labor market is easing?

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February 2, 2023 03:47 PM

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Research

Fed fund pricing calls bulldust on Fed hike(s)

Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.

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February 2, 2023 04:25 AM
Research

FOMC meeting recap: Powell not hawkish enough, traders price in 50bps of cuts by EOY

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!

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February 1, 2023 09:07 PM
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US open: Stocks fall as Snap disappoints & ahead of the Fed

Stocks are heading southwards after Snap, a usual canary in the coal mine, posts the slowest revenue growth since going public in 2017 and as investors await the Fed rate decision.

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February 1, 2023 02:31 PM
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European Open: Tight ranges ahead of NFP but implied volatility perks up

The conclusion of the FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is hands down the main even, so we could be in for a session of tight ranges beforehand (and fireworks after).

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February 1, 2023 07:02 AM
Research

Consumer confidence recap: A rollercoaster of economic emotion

The January Consumer Confidence report is a reminder that the US economy is like a rollercoaster ride, full of ups and downs.

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January 31, 2023 05:22 PM
Research

Fed meeting preview: The magic show of interest rates, inflation, and growth

The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?

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January 30, 2023 03:45 PM
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NFP preview: no signs of a slowing jobs market yet!

Thankfully, some of the early data suggests that the US consumer remained healthy as of December, and that optimism is keeping expectations for the labor market elevated as well.

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January 5, 2023 04:39 PM
Congress building

US open: Stocks selloff on hawkish central banks

Stocks extend the selloff as hawkish guidance from the ECB adds to the Fed gloom.

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December 15, 2022 03:10 PM

FOMC meeting recap: Powell presser poses more questions than answers

The Fed Chairman isn’t yet willing to entertain a pause in rate hikes or the prospect of rate cuts in 2023, though he continues to emphasize the central bank’s data dependence...

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December 14, 2022 09:15 PM
Research

FOMC meeting preview: 50bps hike likely, but will the 2023 dots rise above 5%?

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.

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December 12, 2022 09:21 PM
Gold trading

Gold edges lower as focus turns to CPI, Fed

Traders are continuing to pay respect to the key $1800 resistance level.

"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: Is the jobs market FINALLY slowing?

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

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November 30, 2022 02:58 PM
Research

Inflation Is the Solution: The Wisdom to Accept What We Should Not Change

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

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November 29, 2022 05:03 PM
Forex trading

EUR/USD hits resistance on hawkish FedSpeak

Dollar rebounds as cautious Fed tone on inflation tempers expectations of looser monetary policy

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November 14, 2022 01:03 PM

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Research

There’ll be a lot of bond bears with sore heads today

Traders were net-short the 2-year treasure note by a record amount last week. Which means falling yields are likely driven by short-covering by bears with sore heads.

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November 11, 2022 01:01 AM
Jobs

NFP preview: Will Powell get the jobs slowdown he wants?

Traders are split 50/50 between expecting another 75bps rate hike and a downshift to 50bps, so we’re likely to see some market volatility regardless of how this month’s jobs report prints.

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November 3, 2022 03:33 PM
Research

FOMC meeting recap: Smaller rate hikes coming…but a higher terminal rate on tap?

Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a slower pace of rate hikes, but the key question is whether the peak rate will be above or below 5%...

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November 2, 2022 08:02 PM
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Russell: Stocks on edge as Fed decision looms

The terminal rate is going to be as an important consideration for the markets as the decision to potentially downshift in December.

Research

European Open: The VIX is near a 6-week low ahead of the FOMC meeting

What could possibly go wrong? Well, if we remember that complacency is the devil, perhaps volatility is set to explode higher.

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November 2, 2022 06:48 AM
Research

FOMC meeting preview: Fed expected to hike 75bps, but is the pivot imminent?

The stakes couldn’t be higher for this month’s FOMC meeting - see why!

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November 1, 2022 03:30 PM