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"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: Is the jobs market FINALLY slowing?

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

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November 30, 2022 02:58 PM
Research

Inflation Is the Solution: The Wisdom to Accept What We Should Not Change

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

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November 29, 2022 05:03 PM
Forex trading

EUR/USD hits resistance on hawkish FedSpeak

Dollar rebounds as cautious Fed tone on inflation tempers expectations of looser monetary policy

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November 14, 2022 01:03 PM

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Research

There’ll be a lot of bond bears with sore heads today

Traders were net-short the 2-year treasure note by a record amount last week. Which means falling yields are likely driven by short-covering by bears with sore heads.

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November 11, 2022 01:01 AM
Jobs

NFP preview: Will Powell get the jobs slowdown he wants?

Traders are split 50/50 between expecting another 75bps rate hike and a downshift to 50bps, so we’re likely to see some market volatility regardless of how this month’s jobs report prints.

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November 3, 2022 03:33 PM
Research

FOMC meeting recap: Smaller rate hikes coming…but a higher terminal rate on tap?

Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a slower pace of rate hikes, but the key question is whether the peak rate will be above or below 5%...

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November 2, 2022 08:02 PM
Federal reserve building close-up

Russell: Stocks on edge as Fed decision looms

The terminal rate is going to be as an important consideration for the markets as the decision to potentially downshift in December.

Research

European Open: The VIX is near a 6-week low ahead of the FOMC meeting

What could possibly go wrong? Well, if we remember that complacency is the devil, perhaps volatility is set to explode higher.

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November 2, 2022 06:48 AM
Research

FOMC meeting preview: Fed expected to hike 75bps, but is the pivot imminent?

The stakes couldn’t be higher for this month’s FOMC meeting - see why!

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November 1, 2022 03:30 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

Is the Fed about to slow the pace of tightening?

Will today’s “leak” to the WSJ be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding the US Dollar and US rates?

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October 21, 2022 05:23 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

Is the Fed about to slow the pace of tightening?

Will today’s “leak” to the WSJ be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding the US Dollar and US rates?

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October 21, 2022 05:23 PM
Research

CPI recap: Core inflation surges, cementing a 75bps(+?) Fed hike next month

A total of at least 150bps of rate hikes by the end of the year is now the market’s base case as the Fed continues to scramble to catch up with rising prices.

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October 13, 2022 03:02 PM
Research

CPI recap: Core inflation surges, cementing a 75bps(+?) Fed hike next month

A total of at least 150bps of rate hikes by the end of the year is now the market’s base case as the Fed continues to scramble to catch up with rising prices.

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October 13, 2022 03:02 PM

CPI preview: Headline inflation may ease, but Fed more worried about rising core prices

The potential for a continued rise in “core” inflation is what the Fed is worried about, and it is the component of the CPI report that could cement another 75bps interest rate hike...

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October 11, 2022 04:35 PM

CPI preview: Headline inflation may ease, but Fed more worried about rising core prices

The potential for a continued rise in “core” inflation is what the Fed is worried about, and it is the component of the CPI report that could cement another 75bps interest rate hike...

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October 11, 2022 04:35 PM
"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: No signs of a major slowdown in jobs yet!

Are the expectations for NFP justified? We dive into the key leading indicators for Friday’s critical jobs report below!

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October 6, 2022 03:54 PM
"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: No signs of a major slowdown in jobs yet!

Are the expectations for NFP justified? We dive into the key leading indicators for Friday’s critical jobs report below!

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October 6, 2022 03:54 PM

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USD/JPY: Signs of Fed pivot or mere countertrend dip?

There’s only one problem with the Fed pivot narrative: Traders aren’t buying it (yet, at least)!

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October 5, 2022 04:30 PM
Japanese Flag

USD/JPY: Signs of Fed pivot or mere countertrend dip?

There’s only one problem with the Fed pivot narrative: Traders aren’t buying it (yet, at least)!

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October 5, 2022 04:30 PM
Research

Nothing changes for gold, stocks as yields resume higher

Bearish trend persist for indices and metals as investors watch yields continue to rise following a flurry of central bank action this week.

Federal reserve USD $100 note

FOMC meeting instant reaction: Not even a whisper of a pivot yet

Even looking out just until the end of this year, Fed members are projecting another 125bps of rate hikes...

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September 21, 2022 09:25 PM
Congress building

US open: Stocks rise cautiously ahead of the Fed

Futures are edging higher, shrugging off Putin's call for mobilisation and looking ahead to the Fed's rate announcement.

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September 21, 2022 02:58 PM
Federal reserve name plaque on building

FOMC meeting preview: 100bps unlikely, but longer rate hike path in play

In our view, the possibility of a 100bps rate hike is overblown...but that doesn't mean the Fed won't come off as hawkish.

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September 19, 2022 09:25 PM