Fed

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

Dollar rebounds as cautious Fed tone on inflation tempers expectations of looser monetary policy

Traders were net-short the 2-year treasure note by a record amount last week. Which means falling yields are likely driven by short-covering by bears with sore heads.

Traders are split 50/50 between expecting another 75bps rate hike and a downshift to 50bps, so we’re likely to see some market volatility regardless of how this month’s jobs report prints.

Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a slower pace of rate hikes, but the key question is whether the peak rate will be above or below 5%...

The terminal rate is going to be as an important consideration for the markets as the decision to potentially downshift in December.

What could possibly go wrong? Well, if we remember that complacency is the devil, perhaps volatility is set to explode higher.

The potential for a continued rise in “core” inflation is what the Fed is worried about, and it is the component of the CPI report that could cement another 75bps interest rate hike...

Are the expectations for NFP justified? We dive into the key leading indicators for Friday’s critical jobs report below!

Are the expectations for NFP justified? We dive into the key leading indicators for Friday’s critical jobs report below!

There’s only one problem with the Fed pivot narrative: Traders aren’t buying it (yet, at least)!

There’s only one problem with the Fed pivot narrative: Traders aren’t buying it (yet, at least)!

Bearish trend persist for indices and metals as investors watch yields continue to rise following a flurry of central bank action this week.

Even looking out just until the end of this year, Fed members are projecting another 125bps of rate hikes...

Futures are edging higher, shrugging off Putin's call for mobilisation and looking ahead to the Fed's rate announcement.

In our view, the possibility of a 100bps rate hike is overblown...but that doesn't mean the Fed won't come off as hawkish.