
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Breakdown Threatens Deeper Correction 9 23 2026
AUD/USD remains under pressure after breaking key trend support, with the latest decline putting the focus on the next major downside pivot.
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AUD/USD remains under pressure after breaking key trend support, with the latest decline putting the focus on the next major downside pivot.

Aussie has reversed sharply from the September highs, with weakening momentum raising the stakes at support ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.

AUD/USD is trading at its highest since early May, with the yen’s continued rally helping soften the dollar and amplify the Aussie’s upside response.

RBA hike pricing has surged as inflation, spending and GDP all beat expectations, adding to tailwinds for the AUD from stronger metals prices.

Historically, September has been the second-strongest month for EUR/USD performance, with the world’s most widely-traded currency pair sporting an average return of +0.6% over the last 50+ years - see what other seasonal trends could impact the FX market this month!

AUD/USD reversed sharply off key resistance last week, with bulls now attempting to stabilize the multi-month advance ahead of key U.S. jobs data.

Sr. Technical Strategist Michael Boutros highlights the levels that matter on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices charts this week.

Aussie has advanced in eight of the past nine weeks, but the next technical hurdle could determine whether bulls can sustain the broader advance.

Hot Australian CPI revives RBA hike bets, lifts bond yields and adds fresh pressure to crowded AUD/USD short positions.

The AUD/USD continues to grind higher - as it has done so ever since risk assets bottomed back in April 2025. The Aussie has benefitted from rising metals prices and a strong Chinese yuan. The US dollar meanwhile has had bouts of strength here and there, but not much against the Aussie. The recent bond market stress has further increased the US dollar debasement calls. The focus now is turning to key data from both Australia and the US, and the Jackson Hole symposium.

The US dollar moved against its recent macro playbook on Monday. AUD/USD paid the price, although bulls still hold the upper hand.

Aussie momentum has surged to seven-month highs, but the advance is approaching a major resistance zone where exhaustion risk is rising.

The rally has extended more than 3.8% from the June low with the bulls now facing the pivotal resistance. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD charts.
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