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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Trend Break Faces Immediate Test

AUD/USD is trying to hold a fresh trend break as renewed selling pressure tests whether the recovery can extend beyond the recent rebound.

Michael Boutros
Michael Boutros

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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Trend Break Faces Immediate Test 10 14 2026

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Australian dollar technical analysis shows AUD/USD rebounding off confluence support, with its 2025 uptrend still intact on a weekly close basis. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the Australian dollar on the weekly, daily and four-hour charts. A close above the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the September highs and the 200-day moving average marks the line for a more durable low, while a deeper break of the 88.6% retracement would reopen the bearish case. U.S. CPI inflation data, Australian employment data and U.S. PPI all land within days, as Fed funds futures price Federal Reserve rate expectations into year-end.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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