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Forex Friday: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GOLD and YIELDS
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, gold, yen and euro, and look forward to the week ahead.
US Core PCE lower in September; USD continues lower
If Core PCE continues to fall over the coming months, the Fed may end up hiking rates less than it expects, or even cutting rates before the end of next year.
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European Open: Double top forms on EUR/USD
The US dollar has found some stability following hawkish comments from Fed members, which has seen a double top pattern form on EUR/USD’s daily chart.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Oil
EUR/USD rises above 1.04 ahead of ECB minutes & German IFO business sentiment. Oil steadies after a steep fall.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Oil
EUR/USD falls as German PPI plunges & on safe haven USD demand. Oil falls on China COVID fears.
Philly Fed continues to fall; US Dollar doesn’t seem concerned
US Dollar bears may be looking for higher levels to sell, while EUR/USD bulls may be looking for better levels to buy.
Two trades to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/USD
GBP/USD rises ahead of the Chancellor’s Budget. EUR/USD holds steady ahead of Eurozone inflation data
Technical Tuesday: EUR/USD, GOLD and Russell
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, EUR/USD, gold and the Russell index.
US October PPI follows the CPI lower
Both the CPI and PPI are pointing towards a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes for the Fed, to 50bps from 75bps.
European Open: EUR/USD consolidates ahead of GDP, ZEW and inflation data
A combination of data including GDP, inflation and a sentiment report from the US and Europe puts EUR/USD into focus for today’s session.
EUR/USD hits resistance on hawkish FedSpeak
Dollar rebounds as cautious Fed tone on inflation tempers expectations of looser monetary policy
Two trades to watch;: FTSE, EUR/USD
FTSE rises after China property plan but can it last? EUR/USD slips after Fed Waller’s comments.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment worse than expected; Inflation components roughly in-line
The November preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 54.7 vs an expectation of 59.5 and an October reading of 59.9.
European Open: EUR/USD implied volatility spikes ahead of mid-term results
At the time of writing, the race to the Senate is close yet Republicans lead the race to the house during the mid-term elections.
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US CPI Preview: CPI to remain elevated
The risk is that the prints come out higher than expected and high inflation lingers.
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, S&P500
EUR/USD slips ahead of retail sales data & midterms. US government gridlock good for stocks.
European Open: China’s imports and exports contract, DAX teases highs
Despite China’s imports and exports contracting in US dollar terms, the Hang Seng was a top performer as traders bet on further stimulus for Beijing.
FOMC short: Dovish statement, hawkish Powell
With the Fed not even thinking or discussing the possibility of pausing, traders may be realizing that lowering inflation may take a lot longer than they had anticipated!
JOLTS has markets second guessing the Fed outcome
The JOLTS figure today shows that the US has even more job vacancies than anticipated, which was already high. This should give the Fed confidence in raising rates by 75bps tomorrow.
European Open: EUR/USD falls below parity ahead of the US Core PCE report
After just one day above it, the euro is back below parity. And it could face further selling pressure if US inflation comes in hotter than expected today.