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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Softening macro backdrop, BOJ threat amplify downside risks
The combination of a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, the first monetary policy decision from a new RBA governor and threat of market intervention from the Bank of Japan has created an interesting mix for the AUD/JPY.
ASX 200 analysis: Like it or not, it’s holding above 7k post CPI
The ASX 200 has continued to show resilience around the key 7,000 support level, despite the surge on bond yields, negative sentiment and rising inflation. What if sentiment improves?
AUD/USD: focus on underlying inflation, fade moves on headline volatility
In an environment of heightened risk aversion, sluggish global economic growth and continued grind higher in rates, a volatile monthly inflation indicator from Australia doesn’t scream as overly important.
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ASX 200: pivotal week looms for Australia’s benchmark stock index
An uneventful year for the ASX 200 could be about to get a lot more exciting with the index perilously close to breaking long-run uptrend support dating back to the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge
Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.
AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point
AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.
ASX 200: Bearish technical signals point to growing downside risks
Bearish technical signals are mounting for Australian equities, pointing to the potential for additional downside beyond that already seen.
AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause
With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.
AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates
A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.
AUD/USD bounce fizzles as droopy data lessens RBA rate hike risks
AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates
AUD/USD: Powell positioning provides fuel for a bounce
Everyone hates the Australian dollar but loves the USD: a risk heading into Jackson Hole?
AUD/USD: reversal risk builds ahead of Jackson Hole
Not a lot has to change to spark a near-term Aussie dollar reversal.
Hang Seng downside break eyes retest of 2022 lows
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.
ASX 200: higher bond yields generating valuation headwinds
Australian stocks don't look particularly cheap, adding to downside risks from earnings disappointments.
AUD/USD tumbles again as jobs market softens
Unemployment jumps unexpectedly diminishing the risk of a wage price spiral forming.
AUD/USD hits fresh lows as bearish sentiment towards China’s economy intensifies
No matter how you slice or dice it, negatives for the AUD/USD continue to pile up.
USD/JPY: 145 breached yet BOJ intervention seems unlikely
USD/JPY is back to levels where the BOJ intervened last year but that doesn't mean it will do so again.
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USD/JPY, China A50 Analysis: Asian Open - 4th August 2023
USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing candle yesterday to suggest all is not well around the cycle highs. Beyond that, it is likely down to NFP as to where USD/JPY finishes the week. We also look at a potential bullish setup on the China A50 which is 'turned the bearish ship around' since we noted its failure to break beneath 12,400 (despite negative sentiment).
AUD/USD pummelled during risk-off trade: Asian Open – 3rd August 2023
AUD/USD fell to an 8-week low, US indices are on track for bearish engulfing weeks and even gold closed the day lower during a risk-off session. The question in my mind as we approach the weekend is whether we’re witnessing a knee-jerk reaction to the US credit-trading downgrade and are at risk of prior trends returning, or whether it is the beginning of something more sinister.
AUD/USD folds as the RBA holds (but DXY hints at support)
The RBA held their interest rate at 4.1% for a second consecutive month. And the fact AUD fell over -0.6% and the ASX touched a high of the week shows that not everyone was positioned for the outcome.
AUD/USD falls as soft CPI prompts renewed hopes of an RBA pause
Whilst Aussie employment data raised expectations of another RBA hike, today’s soft CPI figures may get the RBA off the hook from those opposing higher rates. AUD/USD fell accordingly.
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Analysis: Jobs data keeps hawkish pressure on the RBA
The Australian dollar has spiked higher across the board after the economy delivered another rate-hike defying report. And that has seen AUD/JPY and AUD/JPY break out of their recent consolidations to the upside.
AUD pairs in focus for AU employment: Asian Open - 20th July 2023
The RBA will be keeping a close eye on today's employment figures from Australia. If they continue to outperform then it keeps some pressure on the RBA to at least strike a hawkish tone at their next meeting, or potentially hike if next week's inflation figures are too hot. And that places AUD pairs in focus, and today we're looking at a potential long setup on AUD/JPY at the lower end of its trading range.