DAX Eyes 24,500 as U.S. Equities Hit New Highs

U.S. Equities Surge to Record Highs

• All major U.S. indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting fresh record highs.
• Russell 2000 (small caps) outperformed for a second straight day.
• Drivers of sentiment:
  • Better-than-expected Retail Sales and Retail Control data, though real growth was modest.
  • Philly Fed Index exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts.
  • Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly declined.
• Sector performance was broadly positive:
  • Leaders: Technology, Financials, Industrials
  • Laggard: Healthcare, dragged down by Elevance Health, which fell −13.5% on earnings disappointment.

Federal Reserve Outlook

• Fed Governor Waller (voting member) advocated:
  • A 25bps rate cut in July
  • Emphasized risks from economic slowdown and controlled inflation
  • Warned against waiting too long to ease, suggesting it might require more aggressive cuts later
  • Argued for a meeting-by-meeting policy approach, with a July cut serving as “insurance”

Trade & Tariffs

• White House said the EU remains eager in trade negotiations.
• The U.S. will impose a 93.5% anti-dumping tariff on graphite imports from China, targeting materials used in battery production.

Asia-Pacific Markets

• ASX 200 hit a record high, leading the region.
  • Boosted by Mining, Materials, and Resources sectors
  • BHP rose after a strong Q4 production update
  • Novonix jumped ~20% after announcing plans to expand U.S. graphite output, benefitting from U.S. tariffs on Chinese graphite

Crypto Legislation & Bitcoin

• Bitcoin reclaimed the $120K level, gaining modestly overnight.
• Boosted by U.S. House passing several major crypto-related bills:
  • GENIUS Act (moves to Trump’s desk)
  • Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act (new market structure)
  • CBDC Ban Bill (blocks U.S. central bank digital currency)
• The latter two bills still await Senate approval.

 

DAX Technical analysis 4 hours chart

 Trend & Moving Averages

• All EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200) are aligned bullishly:
  • Price > EMA 20 (24,292), EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200.
  • This indicates strong short-to-midterm bullish structure.
• Golden Cross Setup confirmed earlier where shorter EMAs crossed above longer ones.

Momentum Indicators

• RSI (64.16):
  • Still below overbought (70), indicating room for continuation.
  • Trending upward, supporting the bullish case.
• Stochastic RSI (95.25 & 98.45):
  • In extreme overbought territory, caution for short-term retracement.
  • However, overbought can persist in strong uptrends.

Price Action

• Breakout above recent consolidation zone.
• Resistance may be expected near 24,600 (previous swing high).
• If pullback occurs, support expected near 24,200–24,300 (EMA cluster).