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Nasdaq 100 overcooked, USD/JPY underdone given the shift in US yields

After a near 15% rally in under a month, the high-flying Nasdaq 100 looks tired on the charts, struggling to add to gains despite a continued pullback in US bond yields. In contrast, USD/JPY gives the impression it’s only starting the process of adjusting to the more placid US yield environment.

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November 28, 2023 12:59 AM
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Nasdaq 100 forecast: Nasdaq 100 consolidates after recent rally

US stocks inch higher, consolidating after a strong rally across November. Expectations that the Fed is done hiking rates has boosted demand for equities. Investors are in wait and see mode ahead of the FOMC minutes tomorrow and Nvidia's earnings. Microsoft is in focus after hiring Sam Altman the ex-CEO of open AI who was ousted by the board on Friday.

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November 20, 2023 03:16 PM
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S&P technical analysis: Bears back in town or temporary respite?

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both seem somewhat overbought following a rapid three-week surge. Wednesday's price action has raised the possibility of a short-term pullback. Despite this, it's essential to differentiate any potential short-term weakness from a bearish reversal, unless price action on the charts or a strong pushback from the Federal Reserve indicate otherwise.

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US Index Analysis: DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 All Test Key Resistance

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are all testing key resistance levels and could pull back over the next couple days...


Nasdaq 100 analysis: Stocks extend rally on signs Fed winning inflation battle

We are now in mid-November and US stock markets are enjoying one of their best phases this year, all thanks to optimism that interest rates will start to come down in the not-too-distant future now that inflation is on a downward trajectory. The markets do appear a little overbought though after a sharp three-week rally, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq, so there is a risk of a short-term pullback.

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November 15, 2023 07:21 PM
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Nasdaq100 Forecast: Nasdaq100 soars after cooler CPI

US stocks are set to rise strongly on the open after US inflation cooled by more than expected, fueling bets that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. US CPI eased to 3.2%YoY from 3.7% in September. Core inflation also cooled. The data comes after the Fed left interest rates on hold in the November meeting but raise questions last week over whether another hike was needed.

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November 14, 2023 03:07 PM
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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Stocks running out of bullish catalysts after big rally

The optimism we saw last week was all based on signs of peak interest rates in the US. To give you an idea of what kind of a week it was, the Dow enjoyed its biggest weekly gain since October 2022, while the S&P and Nasdaq had their best weeks since November 2022. While those gains are impressive, so far, we haven’t seen any follow through.

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November 7, 2023 12:40 PM
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US dollar analysis: NFP cements peak Fed rates narrative

Today’s publication of US jobs report has further cemented expectations that the Fed has reach peaked interest rates. Bond yields and the dollar have sold off as a result, with indices and gold moving higher.


Nasdaq 100 faces reversal risk if dovish rates narrative unravels

Markets have been loosening financial conditions aggressively ever since the Fed meeting, creating reversal risks should incoming data challenge the dovish narrative. Nasdaq 100 is one market that's run very hard very fast.

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November 3, 2023 04:23 AM
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Nasdaq 100 outlook in focus ahead of key earnings - Technical Tuesday

The Nasdaq 100 gave up earlier gains and was trading flat at the time of writing, ahead of major earnings. Stronger-than-expected PMI data earlier from the US, where both the services and manufacturing sectors showed moderate expansion with 50+ readings, boosted the “higher for longer” narrative.


Nasdaq 100 outlook: Big Tech Q3 earnings preview

How will Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon perform this earnings season?

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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Risk off as oil rises but yields dip

Crude oil prices have risen in excess of 3% on worries Israel is preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza, raising geopolitical risks in the region. Thursday’s publication of hotter-than-expected data raised the prospects of interest rates remaining high for longer. This narrative is finding further support from rising oil prices. The focus will also turn to company earnings, with banks set to kick start the reporting season today.

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October 13, 2023 01:09 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast Stocks rise as ADP payrolls drop sharply

US stocks point to a stronger start after steep losses yesterday. Weaker than expected US ADP payrolls suggests that some weakness is seeping into the labour market ahead of Friday's NFP. Yields has eased lower from the 16 year high reached on bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. US ISM services data is due shortly and could provide further clues over the resilience of the US economy.

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October 4, 2023 03:14 PM
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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Tech stocks could break under pressure from yields

The Nasdaq 100 has been able to hold its own relatively better than many other global indices so far this week. But with overstretched valuations, coupled with growing worries about the health of the global economy and still-rising government bond yields, I am not so sure how long they will be able to hold up the market.

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October 3, 2023 01:56 PM
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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Stocks remain vulnerable despite bounce

There was a bit of relief rally for global markets in the first half of Wednesday’s session after a bruising sell-off on Tuesday. Given that the recovery has not been supported by any fundamental news or development, I suspect the sellers will come back and drive stock prices lower again.

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September 27, 2023 12:39 PM

Nasdaq 100 analysis: Short-covering boost for stocks in tumultuous week

Stocks bounced back in the first half of Friday’s session as yields dipped and the dollar eased. But it is far too early to say the markets have bottomed, as fundamentally nothing has changed. Today’s recovery looks like is driven by profit-taking more than anything, as bonds, indices and major currencies tested some key levels.

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September 22, 2023 06:00 PM

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Nasdaq100 Forecast: Stocks inch higher on hopes that peak rates are here

US stocks are edging higher ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. However, the key focus will be on what comes next. The market is pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again in November. Yet with inflation still over 2%, resilience in the US economy and oil heading towards $100 the Fed is likely to keep the door open for further hikes if needed.

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September 20, 2023 02:46 PM
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Nasdaq 100 analysis: US stocks in for rollercoaster ride as focus turns to Fed

At the time of writing, US index futures were trading near their session highs, boosted by a small decline in global bond yields. Unsurprisingly, UK yields led the falls, and FTSE led the major indices higher, after UK inflation came in weaker than expected, further boosting speculation that the Bank of England may opt for a “dovish rate hike” on Thursday.

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September 20, 2023 02:27 PM
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Nasdaq 100: higher, flatter Fed funds profile a headwind for tech stocks

With a significant amount of earnings generated overseas, and whose valuations are susceptible to rising risk-free rates, the Nasdaq 100 stands out as one market that looks particularly vulnerable.

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September 19, 2023 06:19 AM
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Nikkei 225 breaks higher on tech gains. Nasdaq 100 next?

Given the driver of the Nikkei’s performance, keep an eye on the Nasdaq’s performance given it continues to bump up against downtrend resistance on an almost daily basis.

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September 14, 2023 07:11 AM

Nasdaq 100 forecast: How will iPhone 15 and China impact Apple stock?

Apple has just released the new iPhone 15, but will it provide a much-needed catalyst after threats in China sparked a selloff?

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September 13, 2023 12:03 PM

Nasdaq 100 forecast: How will Adobe earnings impact ADBE stock?

Adobe is set to report record results but, having been one of the best performers in the Nasdaq 100 this year, it may take a lot to impress the markets.