US Tech 100

The Nasdaq 100 has printed a bearish monthly key reversal after a brutal October, with weak market breadth and heavy losses among AI beneficiaries raising the risk of further downside.

Disappointing results from a couple of major global technology names have put the AI trade back under scrutiny, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling around 1% after giving up the post-FOMC gains seen overnight. For now, our short-term Nasdaq 100 forecast remains more on the cautious side of things than outright bearish. The index remains close to its record highs and continues to find dip buyers. But could that change soon?

The Nasdaq 100 sell-off is being driven by doubts over AI spending, as investors punish strong earnings that fail to justify stretched valuations.

From crude to AI, the forces driving US markets have changed dramatically. Thursday's Nasdaq rout triggered an extraordinary Treasury rally, but the dollar barely moved. What happens next could depend on Nasdaq support.

It has been a risk off day so far with stocks, gold, silver and cryptos all taking a plunge. The Japanese yen has emerged as the strongest currency, with risk sensitive antipodeans falling along with the euro – the latter down due to ongoing French bond market turmoil. Along with global indices, US index futures have taken a drop, threatening to undo what had looked like a promising rebound on Wall Street yesterday.

European indices recovered from a weaker start to turn positive by mid-morning trade, although US futures were still nursing small losses. Global indices were looking to add to their gains from the day before. Investors are weighing up encouraging earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro against elevated oil prices, which are limiting the upside for risk assets. We have more tech earnings coming up today which could shape the near-term Nasdaq 100 forecast.

Global stock markets have started the new week on an uneasy footing for the most part, although US technology sector was staging a recovery attempt. European equities have been firmly lower in this first half of Monday’s session, with the CAC 40 and IBEX among the biggest fallers as renewed political and fiscal concerns in France weigh on sentiment. The German DAX index was also down, while US indices had given up a good chunk of their sharp overnight gains, with the Dow futures turning negative, leading to a lower cash open. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted decent gains at the open after last week’s heavy losses, but the recovery looks fragile given the lingering pressure on technology stocks and growing doubts about the AI investment boom.

Nasdaq futures are flying despite further negative AI infrastructure headlines. History suggests fading strong Monday opening rallies hasn't always paid off, while the technical picture is starting to turn in favour of bulls.

US index futures pushed higher in the first half of Friday’s session, taking cues from a strong performance from European equities. Both European and US equity futures extending yesterday’s impressive recovery after the sharp sell-off earlier in the week. But the lingering concerns around the AI investment cycle remain, while bond markets were easing lower again, lifting yields.

We've seen three substantial Nasdaq 100 selloffs this year, only for buyers to return. But the Treasury market's reaction to the latest decline is very different, raising questions about whether this is another temporary scare or something more substantial.

The new trading week is underway and the Nasdaq 100 is once again displaying a meaningful bullish bias in the short term. This can be seen in the index's recent performance, which has gained more than 2.1% over the last three trading sessions, returning once again to record-high territory.

The trading week is getting underway with renewed bullish momentum across Nasdaq. This is reflected in today's session, where the index has gained more than 2.5%, highlighting a buying bias that has not been observed with this level of strength in several weeks.