Gold Analysis: Resilient U.S. Labor Market Continues to Pressure XAU/USD

Recent trading sessions have not been particularly favorable for gold in the short term. XAU/USD has fallen nearly 2.5% over the last three sessions, reflecting that selling pressure is once again gaining relevance and that the metal continues to struggle to regain momentum.

For now, this weakness is partly driven by the first labor market releases published this week in the United States, which continue to point to a relatively resilient employment environment. This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a relatively more aggressive stance and has once again supported interest rate expectations. As a result, bond yields have started to recover, limiting gold's ability to stage a consistent rebound in the short term, a dynamic that could remain relevant over the coming sessions.

What Is Happening with U.S. Employment?

Earlier today, the market received the latest US JOLTS Job Openings report. Expectations were centered around 7.15 million available job openings, but the actual figure surprised to the upside, reaching 7.52 million.

Overall, the result partially breaks the slowdown trend that had been developing before September and once again suggests that companies continue to maintain relatively solid labor demand. The reading also indicates that job openings remain above levels observed throughout much of 2026.

Source: TradingEconomics

This development is important because labor market conditions remain one of the main factors the Federal Reserve considers when determining monetary policy. When economic data continue to show resilience and stability, policymakers tend to have greater flexibility to maintain a more restrictive stance if inflation remains a concern.

That perception has already started to influence market expectations. Before the labor report was released, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's December 9 meeting stood near 74%. Following the publication, those odds increased toward 80%, reflecting growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may become slightly more aggressive than markets were anticipating only a few days ago.

Source: CMEGROUP

An important consequence of this shift is the renewed strength seen in the U.S. bond market, one of gold's principal competitors for investor capital. In recent sessions, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has resumed its short-term upward trajectory and is once again approaching the 5.00% area.

This remains relevant because the latest rise in yields coincides with a new phase of weakness in gold. As bond markets begin offering more attractive returns, their relative appeal increases compared with assets such as gold, which does not generate yield. This relationship has been particularly important throughout much of 2026 and continues to limit the metal's ability to attract consistent demand.

Source: TradingEconomics

With all of this in mind, gold continues to face challenges in rebuilding confidence within an environment where alternative markets have started to gain relative appeal. The latest labor market releases continue to support expectations of a potentially more aggressive Federal Reserve into year-end, a situation that limits gold's ability to re-establish itself as a preferred safe-haven asset in the short term.

In addition, markets are still awaiting the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week, an event that could prove even more important in shaping expectations around U.S. monetary policy over the coming months. As long as investors continue to price in a relatively more restrictive Federal Reserve, selling pressure could remain an important feature of XAU/USD price action in the sessions ahead.

 

Gold Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The broader bearish trend remains the dominant structure: Gold's recent weakness and the appearance of fresh lows not seen in several months continue to reinforce the importance of the bearish trendline that has dominated the chart since the beginning of 2026. For now, the broader bearish structure remains the most important technical pattern to monitor and, if sellers continue breaking key support levels, a more aggressive short-term downtrend could begin to emerge in the weeks ahead.
   

• RSI: The RSI continues to trade below the 50 neutral level, reflecting that bearish momentum remains dominant over the average behavior of the last 14 sessions. As long as this dynamic remains in place, the bearish bias could continue to dominate the chart.
   

• TRIX: A similar picture can be observed in the TRIX indicator, whose line remains below the 0 neutral level. This reading suggests that exponential moving averages continue to reflect a consistent bearish structure and reinforces the idea that selling pressure remains the dominant force behind recent price action.
   

Key Levels to Watch:

• $4,200 – Critical Resistance: An important upside barrier that coincides with the 50-period simple moving average and a key area near the Ichimoku Cloud. Price action returning toward this level could begin to challenge the dominant bearish structure and open the door to a more meaningful recovery in the weeks ahead.
   

• $4,000 – Near-Term Barrier: An important retracement area observed during previous weeks that also coincides with a major psychological level for the market. This zone could become the main reference to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.
   

• $3,885 – Critical Support: A low not seen since October 2025 and currently the most important downside barrier on the chart. Price action consolidating below this level could significantly strengthen seller dominance and create room for a more aggressive bearish trend in the sessions ahead.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25