CPI

Dow Jones weakness links rising crude oil and Treasury yields with pressure on stocks, while a rebound leaves the broken uptrend unconfirmed.

A core CPI reading that rounds to 0.3% m/m or even an unrounded reading above 0.20% would signal that inflation is not slowing sufficiently, and a Fed rate hike may be necessary next week. What would that mean for the US dollar?

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are flashing daily oversold momentum signals not seen since 2024, raising the risk of a near-term reversal ahead of the U.S. CPI report and Federal Reserve policy decision.

EUR/USD is building on a rebound from trend support, with major event risk poised to test the strength of the recovery.

The higher oil goes, the worse it may get for the euro, which, to be fair, has performed well during the more recent rises in oil prices compared to earlier this year. Still, the risks to the near EUR/USD forecast remains tilted lower as the pair tests the 200-day average ahead of a pivotal week.

It has not been an easy week for the Japanese yen. Over the last four trading sessions, USD/JPY has posted a move of only around 0.3%, reflecting a market that continues to lack clear direction and remains trapped in a phase of neutrality.

PCE may still matter to policymakers at the Fed, but for traders looking for a genuine volatility event, CPI has been the far more reliable release.

Despite the selling pressure that has dominated USD/MXN price action in recent weeks, a period during which the pair has declined roughly 0.6% over the last four trading sessions, today's session has been marked by a modest recovery in favor of the U.S. dollar.

Over the last 3 trading sessions, the Canadian dollar has shown signs of strength, reflected in a USD/CAD decline of nearly -0.43%, marking a short-term bearish bias. This pressure has held steady following the release of Canada's inflation data and amid expectations of progress in tariff negotiations, keeping the Canadian currency from losing ground.

Canada’s July CPI rose 3.0%, up from 2.8% in June, though median CPI was more moderate at 2.0% ahead of Wednesday deadline for 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian exports to the US - what are the implications for USD/CAD?

The U.S. dollar index is holding the uptrend line connecting its higher lows all year, while crude oil still carries a geopolitical risk premium. Razan Hilal, CMT, Market Analyst for Global Macro at StoneX Media, walks through the daily and monthly structure on both charts and what separates the two scenarios.

The EUR/USD was struggling to find a clear direction. Hardly a surprise, truth be told, ahead of such an important data release. Investors are weighing a renewed surge in crude oil prices in recent days against the prospect of another important US inflation reading. While market volatility remains subdued, the combination of higher energy prices and elevated bond yields is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.