DAX Climbs After Fed Move, Eyes Break Above 26,000 Resistance

DAX Market Letter: Fed interest rate hike provides new tailwind

Thursday, September 17, 2026

DAX starts with a significant gain

The DAX opened significantly stronger on Thursday following yesterday's Fed decision. Wednesday's Xetra closing price was  25,537.75 points , a gain of 0.53%. At the start of today's trading, the DAX is up 0.6% at approximately  25,695 points .

The main impetus comes from the USA: The Fed raised the key interest rate yesterday by  25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% – the first interest rate hike since 2023. At the same time, the new Fed leadership under Kevin Warsh hinted at further tightening.

The market's initial reaction has been surprisingly constructive. Apparently, some of the hawkish Fed expectations were already priced in.

Yesterday's winners and losers

Wednesday was generally positive for the DAX, although with significant sector rotation.

DAX leader

share	Wednesday
Siemens Energy	+3.10%
RWE	+2.81%
Hochtief	+2.59%
Symrise	+2.30%
adidas	+1.94%

DAX laggards

share	Wednesday
Volkswagen Vz.	-2.64%
Mercedes Benz	-2.57%
Commerzbank	-2.40%
Rheinmetall	-1.52%
Siemens Healthineers	-1.31%

The strength of  Siemens Energy and RWE is striking , while German automakers were once again under pressure. The weakness of Volkswagen and Mercedes thus remains a drag on market breadth.

What's happening today

The market movement is broad-based again today. In the current DAX indication,  Siemens Energy (+3.50%), Continental (+2.83%), and RWE (+2.57%) are leading the way . On the losing side are  Volkswagen (-2.12%), Mercedes-Benz (-2.04%), and Commerzbank (-1.58%) .

This means that the pattern from Wednesday continues initially:  energy and industrial stocks are leading, while automotive and some financial stocks are lagging behind.

The Fed provides the most important impetus

The Fed raised its key interest rate yesterday to  3.75–4.00% . At the same time, projections signaled a further possible rate hike later this year. The median of the Fed projection for the end of 2026 rose to approximately  4.1% .

This explains the strength of the US dollar and the renewed rise in short-term Treasury yields.

For the DAX, this is a double-edged sword:

On a positive note,  the Fed is signaling its intention to combat inflation. A credible decline in inflation could later allow for lower interest rates.

On the downside:  Higher US interest rates mean higher global financing costs and can limit the valuation of stocks.

Important appointments today

Today's calendar remains extremely full.

11:00 AM – Eurozone Inflation

The final August data on eurozone inflation will be published.  Total inflation is expected to be 3.3% and core inflation 2.4%  year-on-year.

1 p.m. – Bank of England

The Bank of England decides on the UK's key interest rates. The consensus is  3.75% , so it remains unchanged.

2:15 p.m. – ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane

Philip Lane is speaking at the ECB's Jean Monnet Lecture. Following the ECB's recent interest rate hike to 2.50%, statements regarding future inflation and interest rate policies are particularly relevant.

2:30 p.m. – Building permits and construction starts

Among other things, building permits and construction starts for August are expected from the USA  . Approximately 1.315 million building permits and 1.305 million construction starts are anticipated on an annualized basis.

In addition, the market remains heavily focused today on the repercussions of the Fed's decision.

2:30 PM – US follow-up applications for unemployment benefits

Among the data coming from the US are the continuing claims for unemployment benefits for August. Around 1.785 million are expected. Also of importance – following yesterday's statement by Kevin Warsh regarding the robustness of the labor market – is that any major deviation could come as a surprise.

In addition, the market remains heavily focused today on the repercussions of the Fed's decision.

Technical analysis

The DAX managed to hold above its important medium-term moving averages yesterday. Closing at 25,537 points, it remained above the  100-day moving average .

Current technical data for the DAX chart show:

• Pivot:  25,834
• Resistance 1:  25,800
• Resistance 2:  25,919
• Resistance 3:  26,157
• Support 1:  25,364
• Support 2:  25,192
• Support 3:  24,853
• 50-day moving average:  approx. 25,703
• 200-day moving average:  approx. 24,853
• Stoch RSI:  approx. 20.8 – near oversold territory

Scenario 1: Outbreak

If the DAX can sustainably break through the 25,900–26,000 point zone   , the short-term technical picture would improve further. Above 26,000 points, the next significant resistance level would then be in the  26,500–26,600 range  , near the previous record high of 26,618.70 points.

Scenario 2: False Outbreak

If the index fails again at 25,900–26,000 points, the first relevant support zone lies at approximately  25,700–25,750 points . Below that, the 50/200-day zone around 25,700–24,850 comes into focus.

Scenario 3: Return below 25,500

A renewed drop below  25,500 points  would significantly weaken today's recovery momentum. A retest of the recent lows would then be possible.

Conclusion

The DAX starts today with a clear technical advantage, but the movement is not yet confirmed.

The 25,900–26,000 point range  represents the most important short-term resistance zone. A sustained breakout would improve the technical picture and refocus attention on the record high.

At the same time, the RSI is already close to 70. After the strong rise on Thursday morning, the risk of a short-term pullback is therefore increasing.

On a macro level , the Fed, oil, bond yields and European inflation remain   the crucial variables.

Today's trading will therefore depend primarily on whether the DAX can overcome the  26,000-point mark  or whether the initial reaction to the Fed decision merely leads to short-term short covering.

Technical bias: positive in the short term, but close to a key resistance zone.

By Philip J Papageorgiou - Head of Investment Research

Find him on X (x twitter) - PhilipForexCom