Stay in step with market opportunities and get insights, actionable trade ideas and dedicated support.
The week remains positive in the short term for the S&P 500, which is currently showing a gain of more than 1.5% over the last two trading sessions. The index has also reached the 7,500-point area for the first time, marking a new all-time high.
Over the past four trading sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) has declined by more than 1.2% from its all-time highs, as a new bearish bias begins to gain relevance in the short term. Selling pressure has persisted in part because long-term equity market confidence remains in neutral territory, while ongoing shifts in the Federal Reserve’s outlook for 2026 have started to weigh on recent demand.
It’s been a strong year for SPX with a strong reversal from the March and April sell-offs. The question now is how much more fuel do bulls have left in the tank as we near the Fed’s expected rate cut in two weeks.
S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow traded lower this week with seasonal tendencies threatening the bulls heading into September. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical charts.
Stocks clawed back from the PCE and NFP-fueled sell-off but the question now is whether CPI data will cooperate with rate cut hopes.
Stocks sold off after the CPI report but a threat to fire Powell on Wednesday helped to arrest the declines.
It was a banner year for stocks and the last time the S&P 500 rallied by this much over a two-year period, the index continued with a strong outing in 1999.
It was a banner year for stocks and the last time the S&P 500 rallied by this much the index continued with a strong outing in 1999.
Earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce are scheduled for the coming week.
The health of the consumer will be in focus next week, with US inflation data, retail sales, and the start of retailers' earnings. Walmart and Home Deport will update the market. Meanwhile, Chinese e-commerce and cloud giant Alibaba will also release earnings, along with Chinese retail sales figures later in the week,
Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.
The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.
Oil prices appear to have found support at $70 per barrel, with news of US stock building, further OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions spurring buying action. The Fed’s December meeting minutes were cagey on the outlook for interest rates in 2024. JOLTS labor market data pointed to further weakness, good news for inflation.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
