
USD/JPY outlook: Yen shorts flushed again as history points lower
Speculators have staged one of the largest yen positioning reversals on record, with past episodes often followed by further USD/JPY weakness.
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Speculators have staged one of the largest yen positioning reversals on record, with past episodes often followed by further USD/JPY weakness.

Euro and yen bears were caught offside after the FOMC and coordinated US-Japan intervention, while US dollar positioning reached an 11-year extreme.

US dollar rebounds post-FOMC, yen surges on BOJ ETF unwind, and NZD weakens on RBNZ cut bets in the latest COT report.

COT report shows euro and yen positioning turning more bullish, while gold sentiment builds, VIX longs collapse, and crude oil nears net-short levels.

COT report shows rising net-longs in JPY and VIX futures, while US dollar shorts deepen ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

NZD positioning jumps at fastest pace in 7 years, EUR longs extend, silver hits sentiment extreme while gold lags.
Traders ramped up bearish bets on the US dollar, pushing net-short exposure to record levels. Meanwhile, AUD saw renewed short interest, while CAD and EUR gained favour among large speculators.
COT report reveals mixed positioning in currencies, metals, and indices. USD shorts rise, gold longs build, and Wall Street futures diverge as volatility looms.
COT report reveals USD shorts trimmed and gold longs rising, though commodity currencies are on the verge of breakouts despite short bets against them. Wall Street indices see real-money accounts stepping in.
Positioning on the US dollar continues to suggest an oversold market. USD/CAD is rebounding in line with my bias, and large speculators have began betting against the Japanese yen.
Japanese yen net-longs hit record highs, but price action diverges. With USD oversold and the BoJ dovish, JPY bulls may be pushing their luck too far.
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
Asset managers remained net-long the US dollar index, but may have since flipped to bet short with the USD index falling below 100. Traders were less bearish on the Australian and Canadian dollars, and increased bullish interest on EUR/USD.
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