Nasdaq’s Uptrend Faces a Test as Silver Falters Below Historic Resistance

Key Events

• Silver pulls back below its 45-year resistance.
• Nasdaq recovers on positive earnings and dovish Powell comments, though a full recovery remains in question.
• Tariff headlines and the ongoing US government shutdown continue to threaten market risk appetite.

Tariff tensions between the US and China have helped US indices ease their overheated momentum, while gold and silver approach stretched historical levels. Risk appetite seems to have hit resistance following upbeat US bank earnings from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, alongside Powell’s dovish tone. Yet, uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and the government shutdown keeps the full recovery in question.

Will tariff tensions trigger another downturn, or will progress on trade allow US indices to reclaim record highs — giving precious metals a chance to consolidate before resuming their broader uptrends?

Silver Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Silver’s line chart has aligned with a 45-year resistance trendline stretching back to the 1980s, raising downside questions for the ongoing rally. With gold trading near $4,200 and silver pulling back from $53.60 toward the $51 level, the metal’s strength appears to be waning.

This setup may reflect broader shifts in market sentiment as investors balance Powell’s dovish tone with uncertainty around US–China trade negotiations.

Silver Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

On the weekly chart, silver is eyeing the upper boundary of a duplicated uptrend channel respected since 2023, right near its 45-year resistance line. The lower channel boundaries could support any pullback around $47 and $44, aligning with the trendline connecting higher highs from 2023–2024.

On the upside, if silver holds above $53.60 and breaks through the long-term resistance from 1980, the rally could extend toward the channel’s upper border near the $56.50–$57.00 zone, before tracing a proper pullback to recharge the heated momentum.

Nasdaq Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The Nasdaq has successfully rebounded from the 24,000 support level — the lower boundary of its parallel ascending channel since August — and is now testing resistance near 24,800. A confirmed breakout above this zone could pave the way for further gains toward the 25,000–25,300 region.

However, a drop back below 24,500 may reopen downside risk toward 24,300 and 24,000. A sustained move below 23,900 could accelerate losses by another 1,000 points, targeting 23,100–22,900 respectively, mimicking the emotional sell off of April 2025.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves