USD/CHF Rebound Struggles to Pull RSI Out of Oversold Zone
USD/CHF no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows after falling for seven consecutive days.
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US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF
USD/CHF no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows after falling for seven consecutive days, but the weakness in the exchange rate may persist as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holds in oversold territory.
USD/CHF Rebound Struggles to Pull RSI Out of Oversold Zone
USD/CHF may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of the week as it bounces back from a fresh yearly low (0.7872), and data prints coming out of the US may fuel the recent recovery in the exchange rate as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is anticipated to show a further expansion in employment.
US Economic Calendar
The US is expected to add 110K jobs in June following the 139K rise the month prior, and a positive development may keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines as Chairman Jerome Powell tells US lawmakers that ‘increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.’
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In turn, signs of a resilient labor market may lead to a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it curbs speculation for an imminent Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected NFP print may drag on the Greenback as it puts pressure on the central bank to implement lower interest rates.
With that said, USD/CHF may stage a larger recovery as it appears to be defending the rebound from earlier this week, but the bearish momentum may persist as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below 30.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView
- USD/CHF no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows after failing to close below 0.7900 (50% Fibonacci extension), and a further rebound in the exchange rate may test the former support zone around the April low (0.8040).
- A move/close above the 0.8030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push USD/CHF back toward 0.8200 (23.6% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the June high (0.8250).
- However, USD/CHF may continue to track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.8209) as it still holds below the moving average, with a close below 0.7900 (50% Fibonacci extension) bringing the 0.7760 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.7810 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) region on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (JUN 2025)
EUR/USD Pulls Back While RSI Holds in Overbought Zone
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes November High
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of July
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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