Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Four-Week Slide Nears Critical Uptrend Support

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD has fallen more than 3.6% from the September high, with a fourth consecutive weekly decline now probing nine-week lows.
The selloff is approaching a major support confluence near the lower boundary of the 2025 uptrend- risk for inflection into month-end.
Weekly RSI has deteriorated to its weakest levels of the year, keeping the momentum profile in favor of the bears.
Australian inflation, U.S. Core PCE and Non-Farm Payrolls headline a heavy stretch of event risk into the monthly and quarterly close.
Resistance 7116, 7208/17 (key), 7295 - Support 6920/45, 6876 (key), ~6717/57

AUD/USD heads into the quarterly close under sustained pressure after the late-summer rally failed to clear major resistance. The decline has now carried Aussie back toward the lower bounds of the broader 2025 advance, where the next reaction could prove increasingly important for the medium-term outlook. With Australian inflation, U.S. Core PCE and Non-Farm Payrolls all on deck, the coming days could determine whether the correction begins to stabilize or develops into a more significant trend break. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, AUD/USD was, “approaching pivotal resistance on the heels of an impressive multi-month rally. From a trading standpoint, a good region to raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 7120 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7214 needed to fuel the next leg higher..” Aussie registered a weekly close high at 7205 the following week before reversing sharply lower. The subsequent decline has extended more than 3.6% with AUD/USD poised to mark a fourth consecutive weekly decline.

Key weekly support is now within striking distance at 6938/45- a region defined by the June low-week close (LWC) and the 78.6% retracement of the June low. Note that the lower parallel of the 2025 pitchfork converges on this threshold over into the open of October with the 52-week moving average just lower at ~6920. Look for a larger reaction into this slope IF reached. Weekly momentum has now reached the lowest levels of the year and ultimately, a break / weekly close below the March close low at 6876 would be needed to validate a break of the 2025 uptrend. The next major technical consideration rests with the 2025 close high and the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2025 advance at 6717/57.

Look for initial resistance near the 61.8% parallel (currently near ~7070s) and is backed by near-term bearish invalidation at the February high close at 7116. Key resistance remains unchanged at the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 rally at 7208/14. A breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone would be needed to mark resumption of the multi-year uptrend. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2019 swing high at 7295.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is approaching key support at the lower bounds of the 2025 uptrend with momentum now favoring the bears. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 6945- rallies would need be limited to 7116 IF Aussie is heading for a break lower with a close below 6876 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Event risk ramps up for AUD/USD into the close of the week, month, and quarter, with Australian inflation and U.S. Core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—on tap tomorrow. The focus then shifts to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, while a busy slate of Fed speakers over the next few days could further shape expectations for the path of U.S. monetary policy. With key inflation and labor-market data converging around quarter-end, volatility could surge in the days ahead. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly, monthly, and quarterly closes for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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