- Copper outlook: prices rebound after Friday’s tariff-induced selloff
- Supply disruptions and strong Chinese imports boost sentiment
- Technical indicators point to sustained upside momentum
Today has been another solid day for both precious and to a lesser degree base metals: Gold has surged almost 2% to $4,100; silver was last 3.7% higher at $52 and copper was up a cool 3.4%. All these metals have been in good form and the trend continues. Copper, which has been lagging, is only now catching up with PMs. The metal is regaining strength after Friday’s tariff-driven plunge, as global risk sentiment improves. Markets welcomed calming remarks from President Trump and signs that Beijing is eager to ease trade tensions. With the current trade truce between the US and China set to expire on November 10, investors are bracing for more negotiation theatrics in the coming weeks. Coppers prices are also buoyed by robust Chinese import data that reflects resilient industrial demand. Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown continues to slow domestic data releases, shifting traders’ attention to this week’s central bank speeches and company earnings releases.
Supply disruptions strengthen bullish copper outlook
The copper market remains heavily influenced by supply-side challenges. Disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the world’s second-largest, have added upward pressure to prices in recent weeks. Freeport-McMoRan, the mine’s operator, recently declared force majeure after fatal flooding in underground tunnels severely curtailed production.
Elsewhere, operational issues in Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo have compounded the tightening supply situation. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now expects the global refined copper market to swing from a surplus of 209,000 tons to a deficit of 150,000 tons by 2026, citing slower output growth and persistent logistical issues.
These supply constraints reinforce the bullish copper outlook, particularly as demand continues to strengthen from key consumer markets.
Chinese demand highlighted by trade data
China’s appetite for copper shows little sign of waning. The latest trade data released overnight revealed total imports of all good coming into China climbed 7.4% year-on-year in September, the highest in 17 months. But it was copper imports that caught my attention, surging by an impressive 24.4%. This robust performance caught some analysts and traders off guard given recent signs of domestic economic softness, underscoring how infrastructure and electrification projects are driving sustained raw material demand.
While imports from the US fell 16.1% amid ongoing trade tensions, the broader import recovery highlights the resilience of China’s industrial sector. For copper, the takeaway is clear: demand remains strong, and the red metal’s role in China’s long-term modernisation drive continues to expand.
Over the longer term, the copper outlook remains compelling. As the world transitions toward electrification, encompassing electric vehicles, renewable energy grids, and sustainable construction, copper is set to remain at the heart of the clean energy revolution. With demand projected to outpace supply over the next several years, structural deficits could deepen, keeping prices well supported.
Copper technical outlook
From a technical standpoint, copper’s chart setup remains constructive despite Friday’s volatility. The market has recovered quickly from that 5% plunge, with intraday price action looking constructive. Ignoring Friday’s price action, momentum has turned higher for copper. To give you an idea, I keep both the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on all of my daily charts. For copper, there was a bullish crossover of these averages not long ago, providing us with an objective bullish signal. This crossover often signals trend continuation, making copper a dip-buyer’s friend.
Key support is now seen near the $5.000 level, which briefly broke during the tariff-driven selloff but was swiftly reclaimed. Holding above this psychological and technical level keeps the near-term bias firmly bullish. Below it, support levels sit at $4.850 and the 200-day SMA around $4.743.
On the upside, the first resistance lies at $5.214, then $5.289, last week’s high, where several stop orders may be triggered should we cross it. A break above that level could pave the way towards $5.464 and $5.595, with a potential extension to $6.000 if momentum accelerates and sentiment remains risk-on.
In summary
The copper outlook remains bullish amid tightening supply, resilient Chinese demand, and supportive technicals. While short-term volatility linked to US-China trade rhetoric may continue, the broader fundamentals still favour the upside.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
