The main focus this week will be on Trump’s tariff deadline on July 9. The market will be closely watching to see which trade tariffs are applied to which countries. Trump has warned that the tariffs could range from 10% to 70%
Shell trading update
Shell and its sector peer BP have been very much in focus as oil prices have fluctuated violently over the past month, as the conflict between Iran and Israel fueled concerns about a supply disruption.
A ceasefire between the two countries is holding, and while traders continue to eye developments, the risk premium on oil has fallen sharply, bringing oil prices lower. Attention is now turning to the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, where the oil cartel is expected to agree on reducing oil production by 411k barrels per day.
Oil prices may find the upside limited due to increased supply and a dampened demand outlook amid concerns that Trump’s tariffs could fuel an economic downturn.
In the three months to March, Shell posted earnings of $5.58 billion, down 28% from $7.73 billion a year earlier, but ahead of the $5.09 billion forecast. Despite the drop in profits, the company announced a $ 3.5 billion share buyback program when it released its results in May, marking its fourteenth consecutive quarter of repurchases of at least $3 billion.
Attention is turning to Shell's Q2 update on Monday, which should provide fresh clues over how the oil major is performing ahead of its full results on July 31
How to trade SHEL’s update
Shell’s share price has recovered from the April 2250 low, rising to a peak of 2720 in June. The price has eased lower, finding support on the 200 SMA before rising again.
Buyers will look to extend the recovery towards 2720. A rise above here creates a higher high, opening the door towards 2813, the 2025 high.
Support can be seen at 2520, the 200 SMA. A break below here opens the door to 2335, the 2024 low ahead of 2250.
Vistry trading update
Vistry Group's share price is up 8% year to date, but has failed to recoup the sharp losses from the end of last year, following a series of profit warnings from the house builder.
Revenue for the year rose 7% to £17.2 billion, and final profit before tax was down 35% to £263.5 million. In the trading update on Thursday, the markets will be looking for reassurance that last year's problems were limited and are now under control following a management reorganisation.
The update is unlikely to be very detailed, but could include commentary on the forward order book.
Meanwhile, the UK housing market could be running out of steam. After a solid start, hopes that the housing market was finding its footing could be fading. In June, house prices fell to their lowest level in two years, according to figures from Nationwide Building Society.
While BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has sounded slightly more dovish in recent speeches, raising the prospect of more rate cuts. However, he has warned of a softening labour market, which, combined with the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn, could slow the economy, potentially pulling house prices lower.
How to trade VSTY trading update
Vistry’s share price plunged from 1436 in September last year to a low of 487 in April this year. While the price has recovered from this low, pushing above the 20 SMA, the move higher appears to be losing momentum around 630. The 50 SMA has also crossed below the 200 SMA on the weekly chart in a bearish signal. Sellers will look to break below the 20 SMA at 600 to extend losses towards 489, the 2025 low.
Buyers will need to rise above 715 to create a higher high, exposing the 200 SMA at 850.
Amazon Prime Day
The four-day Amazon Prime events will begin on Tuesday, July 8th., This is twice as long as last year's Amazon Prime Day and could see Amazon bring in more than $21 billion in gross merchandise volume, according to the Bank of America. The exclusive sale to Amazon Prime members will feature discounts across over 35 categories, including beauty, electronics, and apps.
The broader market closely watches the numbers, as they provide insight into the health of the US consumer. Recent data showed that Personal spending unexpectedly fell in May, and retail sales were also soft.
The prime day comes as Amazon stock is flat on the year, lagging behind the S&P 506’s 6% gain.
It's also worth noting that a longer Prime Day could pressure Q3 margins, particularly if shoppers flock to lower-margin categories or if steep promotions eat into profitability. Trade tariffs are also a wild card, particularly for consumer electronics and imported goods.
Beyond the immediate retail Prime Day, it is expected to lift Amazon's advertising business. Prime Video recently expanded its video ad offering. Investors will be watching how effectively Amazon can translate the Prime Day buzz into long-term engagement.
How to trade AMZN’s Prime Day?
AMZN’s recovery from its 161 low has run into resistance around 225. Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50, will look to extend the recovery to 232, the 2024 high, and 242, the record high. Support is seen at 206 on the downside.
