You may never trade a Treasury bond, but if you trade the US dollar, gold, or stock indices, US Treasury auctions are worth understanding - read on for everything you need to know!
As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, bond yields were breaking out, and the dollar was higher across the board. Yet, remarkably, gold was still holding in the positive territory for the third quarter, even if it had weakened somewhat in September.
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Gold was heading into the third quarter of 2026 limping. After a large drop in March, the metal edged lower in April and May before taking another plunge in June. That meant the precious metal was on course to end the second quarter down in double digits.
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Gold is heading into 2026 after one of its strongest years on record. Fuelled by aggressive central bank buying, a global interest rate cutting cycle and elevated safe-haven demand, the metal had surged nearly 65% and was on track to post its fifth consecutive monthly gain as well as a hat-trick of positive annual returns. The key question now is whether gold can hold on to those gains as we move through 2026.
As we look ahead to 2026, the gold outlook is far more finely balanced than in 2025. The longer-term bullish case remains intact and there’s still little incentive to be aggressively bearish, but the tailwinds that powered gold through 2025 may not blow as strongly.
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