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Strong labor data fails to crimp equity markets, dollar rallies
Stocks rallied from early losses this morning as traders weighed this morning's jobs report and positive consumer sentiment data all of which pointed to which pointed to a soft landing. Futures markets pushed out the much hoped-for first rate cut to next summer echoing some Fed official’s mantra of ‘higher rates for longer.’ Predictably, bond yields and the dollar rose, while gold fell back from its peak.
Gold outlook dimmed by stronger US data ahead of CPI and FOMC
It was a textbook reaction in gold in response to the stronger jobs and consumer sentiment data, with the metal falling, dollar and yields rising. It fell from around $2020 to a low so far of $2002. While down, it is certainly not out. It was only on Monday when it hit a new record high, albeit a short-lived one. Still, the downside could well be limited, especially if we see more evidence of waning inflationary pressures around the world.
S&P 500 forecast :SPX recovers from initial post NFP falls
US stocks recover from initial post-NFP losses. The closely watched US jobs report saw 199k jobs added in November, up from 150k. Meanwhile, unemployment fell to 3.7%, and wages grew at 0.4%, faster than expected. The data saw investors rein in Fed rate cut bets.
USD/JPY analysis: NFP beats and dollar rebounds ahead of busy week – Forex Friday
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar in light of the NFP beat, and ahead of next week's key macro events.
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD falls after German inflation and ahead of US jobs data. USD/JPY stabilises after yesterday's slump, US non-farm payroll data up next.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD: BOJ may push back against mounting rate hike bets
USD/JPY tumbled on Thursday on speculation the BOJ may move pre-emptively to lift interest rates before wage pressures have materialised. Such a move would be economically risky and go against recent BOJ statements.
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Halts Six-Day Selloff Ahead of US NFP
EUR/USD bounces back from a fresh monthly low (1.0755) to halt a six-day selloff.
Yen rises on expectations for Japanese rate hikes
The Yen was very strong versus the dollar, hitting a 3-month high of 151.35 after traders anticipated a rate hike from a comment by Bank of Japan’s Governor Kazuo Ueda. The oil price dipped below $70 per barrel for the first time since June. The Dow Jones barely held on to recent gains in morning trade, with the NASDAQ up 1.4% and the S&P 500 up 0.8%. Fundamental direction has been thin with jobs data mixed thus far, and the official employment report still on tap tomorrow morning.
NFP Preview: EUR/USD Tests Support as Traders Price in Q1 Fed Cuts
Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created 185K net new jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (4.0% y/y) and the U3 unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.9%.
GBP/USD Analysis: NFP, CPI, FOMC, BoE on the Horizon
The GBP/USD is poised for a significant challenge in the upcoming days, spanning the end of this week and much of the next. Anticipation surrounds key data releases from both the UK and the US, with the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and CPI data on the horizon. Moreover, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are set to announce their respective interest rate decisions next week.
Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY plunges to test key support ahead of jobs data
This morning saw some big moves in USD/JPY and all other yen crosses. While these yen pairs all managed to bounce off their worst levels by mid-morning London session, they remained under intense pressure. The yen rally comes after BoJ Governor Ueda met Japanese Prime Minister Kishida earlier in the day, with investors anticipating a policy shift in Japan in the not-too-distant future.
EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD trades at a 3-week low on rate cut bets. Oil steadies after yesterday's steep selloff, China data could limit gains.
USD/JPY: BOJ not giving up on abolishing negative interest rate policy despite obvious risks
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is not giving up on normalising monetary policy despite significant uncertainty over the outlook for the Japanese and global economies, putting USD/JPY under modest pressure on what’s been an otherwise quiet session in Asia.
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