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New all-time highs for the Dow and gold
The Dow Jones made another all-time high of 36,265 in morning trade, despite Fed chair Powell trying and failing to talk down hopes that interest rates will be cut in the spring. Gold rose 1.6% to a new all-time high of $2,089 per ounce. Paradoxically, weaker manufacturing data, and the belief that interest rates have thus peaked is the best explanation.
British Pound Analysis: Will GBP/USD’s Imminent Golden Cross Take it Above 1.2725?
GBP/USD is soaring on expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2024, despite Fed Chairman Powell’s protestations...
Nasdaq 100 forecast: Stocks look cautiously to Fed Chair Powell's appearance
US stocks are set for a quiet open as investors look cautiously ahead to an appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today. His comments will come as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation cooled to 3.5% YoY in October and as the market wraps up a month of impressive gains. Optimism that the Fed could start to cut rates next year lifted the Nasdaq 100 11% this month, its best monthly gain since mid-2022.
EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD struggles below 1.09 ahead of manufacturing data & Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Oil falls after OPEC+ underwhelmed.
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Nonfarm payroll, ISM, BOC and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead – Dec 1, 2023
With traders more than happy to price in Fed cuts for 2024 where possible, they will be looking for further signs that the US economy is slowing but at a rate that does not scream recession. And this places US ISM services and the nonfarm payroll report into the limelight next week. China’s trade data and inflation figures may reveal whether Beijing need to step up support for the economy yet again. And whilst the RBA and BOC are expected to hold the cash rate steady at their monetary policy meetings, their statements may indicate how much of an appetite there is for further hikes in Q1.
EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, AUD JPY: Softer US dollar has the Aussie looking constructive against the crosses
While AUD/USD has yet to break the downtrend running from early 2022, the reprieve against the dollar has it looking more constructive against the crosses, especially the euro and Japanese yen having broken key levels on the weekly charts.
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
Gold on a sec… gold just posted its highest monthly close on record
Gold just posted its highest monthly close on record, and now trades less than $40 from its record high set in May. With seasonality on its side, I suspect another crack at the record high could be in order. Although it does run the risk of a shakeout around the milestone level.
Dow makes all-time high in hopes of spring rate cuts
The Dow Jones achieved an all-time high of 35,802 in afternoon trade, signifying the equity market’s bullish tone spurred by hoped-for interest rate cuts. Traders are placing a 40% probability of a March rate cut in the Fed Funds rate. The Fed’s favored inflation measure cooled to 3.5% annual growth, welcome but still above its 2.0% target.
Skims IPO: Everything you need to know about Skims
Kim Kardashian’s iconic shapewear brand Skims is exploring an IPO sometime in 2024. The brand has proven to be a massive success, valued at $4 bn after just three years. Learn everything we know about a potential Skims IPO here.
Shein IPO: Everything you need to know about Shein
Chinese retailer Shein has privately filed for an IPO after slating plans to go public in 2022. Take a look at everything we know about the fast-fashion brand.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises as Fed's preferred inflation gauge cools
Stocks are set to end November on a strong footing after US core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge cooled inline with forecasts. Core PCE eased to 3.5% YoY from 3.7%, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve has finished hiking interest rates. Attention now turns to NY Fed President Williams for his comments ahead of Fed Chair Powell speech tomorrow.
DAX, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX extends gains ahead of EZ and US inflation data. Oil holds steady with the OPEC+ meeting and China data in focus.
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