Commodities

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

Gold is knocking on the door of record highs heading into what has recently been an extremely strong period for bullion prices. But having rallied so hard since early October, it comes across as being priced for perfection near-term.

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

A softer US dollar has helped AUD/USD and gold push towards key technical levels, suggesting the near-term price performance may determine their longer-term trajectory as we head towards 2024.

With the US dollar index falling through its 200-day moving average while benchmark US bond yields remain contained, it should come as no surprise that gold has pushed back towards $2000 per ounce over the past few days.

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.

Large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to AUD/USD futures by 17.1% and trimmed shorts by -2.9% on the day of the RBA’s last hike. And this could be a significant development when you consider net-short exposure recently hit a record level of bearishness just six weeks ago, yet prices defied bears with a sustainable break beneath 63c.

US benchmark bond yields look like they may have bottomed in the near-term, an outcome that may generate additional headwinds for gold at time when it’s already struggling.

With US bond yields down hard, Apple earnings out soon and the technical picture changing rapidly, you don't many more import market moments for the S&P 500 and gold than this.

USD/JPY intervention warnings escalate, PBOC's record push against market forces, USD King for a reason and US real yields push higher before Treasury refunding announcement. Gold is struggling in the difficult environment.

No weekend hangover for US stock futures, bonds calm before BOJ, AUD/USD breaks downtrend while iron ore breaks higher.

Large speculators were net-short GBP/USD futures for a fourth week and by their most bearish level in six months, with gross shorts rising to a 52-week high. The S&P 500 broke a key trendline last week as asset managers piled into shorting the E-mini index futures. WTI fell in line with last week's bias but may have found support over the neat-term. And investors piled into gold for a second week - ahead of gold's break above $2000.

Amazon delivers, crude gains on renewed skirmishes, Australian inflation expectations jump while Tokyo price pressures turn up the heat on BOJ.

Crude oil's grip on markets, AUD/USD hammered as RBA rate hike bets slashed, BOJ faces important choice as USD/JPY tops 150 while Nasdaq 100 rally faces it's moment of truth. Gold continues to glisten despite the tough environment.

Australia inflation too hot to ignore, China confidence remains elusive, Hang Seng traders receive a gift while something is up with Japan's bond market.

Welcome to the inaugural edition of ‘Markets 4x4: What caught our eye during Asian trade, a post delivered daily by 4pm in Sydney detailing the key macro news and views from the Asian session.

Whilst traders remain net-long EUR/USD futures, there are early signs of a turnaround in sentiment with asset managers increasing bullish exposure and prices holding above 1.05. Despite higher WTI prices, large futures traders continued to reduce their long exposure while managed funds have increased their shorts.. Perhaps not too surprisingly, asset managers flipped back to net-long exposure to gold and silver futures last Tuesday.