US CPI, FOMC, BOE, ECB and SNB on tap: The Week Ahead
Four major central banks meeting next week including the FOMC, ECB, BOE and SNB. While no changes are expected, traders want to know who may be the first to cut rates.
Nasdaq 100 ready to retrace? AUD/NZD approaches a technical juncture
We noted the tendency for US indices to begin a retracement on December 7th according to its seasonality, so it is interesting to note the 2-day bearish reversal on the Nasdaq on Wednesday. AUD/NZD is also on the watchlist for a potential long as it approaches a key area of support.
US dollar forecast: A closer look at the dollar’s performance in December
December tends to generate negative returns in December more than any other month, according to its seasonality. Today we take a closer look.
AUD/USD falls post RBA, crude oil bears eye $70: Asian Open
AUD/USD continued lower for a second day after momentum turned at a key resistance level. But if seasonality remains true, it could be on for a better performance in the second half of the month. And whilst crude oil touched a 5-month low, we're on guard for a technical bounce before its next leg lower towards $70.
S&P 500 forecast: A closer look at ‘Santa’s rally’
Santa’s rally refers to the tendency for equity markets to rally into the end of the year. Today we take a closer look at this phenomenon on the S&P 500.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
Gold eyes record high, ASX probes resistance: Asian Open
Gold took full advantage of lower yields on Friday to accelerate into its record high, leaving the question as to whether it can break above this key milestone or present us with a desirable pullback first. The ASX 200 is also considering a break above its 200-day MA.
Nonfarm payroll, ISM, BOC and RBA on tap: The Week Ahead – Dec 1, 2023
With traders more than happy to price in Fed cuts for 2024 where possible, they will be looking for further signs that the US economy is slowing but at a rate that does not scream recession. And this places US ISM services and the nonfarm payroll report into the limelight next week. China’s trade data and inflation figures may reveal whether Beijing need to step up support for the economy yet again. And whilst the RBA and BOC are expected to hold the cash rate steady at their monetary policy meetings, their statements may indicate how much of an appetite there is for further hikes in Q1.
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
Gold on a sec… gold just posted its highest monthly close on record
Gold just posted its highest monthly close on record, and now trades less than $40 from its record high set in May. With seasonality on its side, I suspect another crack at the record high could be in order. Although it does run the risk of a shakeout around the milestone level.
EUR/USD hits major resistance ahead of US inflation: European open
With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.