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USD/JPY analysis: NFP beats and dollar rebounds ahead of busy week – Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar in light of the NFP beat, and ahead of next week's key macro events.

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December 8, 2023 09:20 AM
Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD falls after German inflation and ahead of US jobs data. USD/JPY stabilises after yesterday's slump, US non-farm payroll data up next.


USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD: BOJ may push back against mounting rate hike bets

USD/JPY tumbled on Thursday on speculation the BOJ may move pre-emptively to lift interest rates before wage pressures have materialised. Such a move would be economically risky and go against recent BOJ statements.

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December 7, 2023 06:43 PM

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Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY plunges to test key support ahead of jobs data

This morning saw some big moves in USD/JPY and all other yen crosses. While these yen pairs all managed to bounce off their worst levels by mid-morning London session, they remained under intense pressure. The yen rally comes after BoJ Governor Ueda met Japanese Prime Minister Kishida earlier in the day, with investors anticipating a policy shift in Japan in the not-too-distant future.

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December 7, 2023 06:40 AM

USD/JPY: BOJ not giving up on abolishing negative interest rate policy despite obvious risks

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is not giving up on normalising monetary policy despite significant uncertainty over the outlook for the Japanese and global economies, putting USD/JPY under modest pressure on what’s been an otherwise quiet session in Asia.

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December 6, 2023 11:18 PM

USD/JPY Analysis: Moment of Truth for the Yen’s 2023 Trend

USD/JPY bulls are defending support in the 147.00 area, but the pair is vulnerable to a big breakdown from here...

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December 5, 2023 03:36 PM
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

EUR/USD falls with rate cut bets in focus. USD/JPY falls to a 3-month low as geopolitical tensions rise.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

EUR/USD, USD/JPY implied vols rise ahead CPI and GDP data: European Open

With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.

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November 28, 2023 11:52 PM
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AUD/USD hits resistance pre-CPI as USD/JPY, USD/CNH probe support: Asian Open

With USD/CNH and USD/JPY probing key support levels, we may require a break of them for AUD/USD to stand a chance of continuing its strong rally (which met strong resistance on Tuesday). Unless of course Australia is treated to an uncomfortably hot inflation report today, which could fan fears of another RBA hike.

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November 28, 2023 04:46 PM

Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.


USD/JPY bulls eye break of 150, Crude oil is flat for the year: Asian Open

A sharp reversal on USD/JPY last week brings a potential break above 150 in to focus, assuming the US dollar can find a bid and USD/CNH continues to hold above its 200-day MA. Meanwhile, crude oil has handed back all of its 2023 gains and it is a very fine line before the bias for a move to $80 becomes invalidated.

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November 26, 2023 04:58 PM

DAX, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

DAX slips as German recession worries rise. USD/JPY falls as Japanese CPI rises and ahead of US PMIs.

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November 24, 2023 03:44 AM

USD/JPY: Offshore drivers remain in control unless the BOJ can normalise policy

USD/JPY traders barely acknowledged the release of Japan’s October inflation report, reinforcing the view the only thing that matters for the pair right now is developments in the US economy, unless the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or starts to normalise monetary policy.

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November 23, 2023 07:27 PM
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USD/JPY, AUD/USD: Beware backing the buck on volatile jobless claims data

An unusually large reaction to volatile second tier US economic data has boosted the US dollar, seeing USD/JPY and AUD/USD reserve part of their early week moves. But whether it is justified is contentious, suggesting there may be grounds to fade.

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November 22, 2023 06:28 PM
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US dollar bears running out of steam? AUD/USD, USD/JPY: Asian Open

We watched with bated breath to see if USD/CNH would break its 200-day average on Tuesday and pave the way for the next bout of US dollar weakness. Yet with that key level holding as support, it leaves room for some US dollar strength, a higher USD/JPY and weaker AUD/USD.

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November 21, 2023 05:26 PM

GBP/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch

GBP/USD rises ahead of tomorrow’s Autumn budget. USD/JPY falls ahead of FOMC minutes.

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AUD/USD rises as RBA min retain hawkish bias, USD/JPY, USD/CNH slide continues

There was a risk that the RBA’s minutes were more hawkish than their November statement had let on, and this certainly seems to be the case. And hawkish minutes alongside a lower USD/CNH and USD/JPY have helped AUD/USD test a new cycle high today. Can it now gun for 66?

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November 20, 2023 08:47 PM

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nasdaq, crude oil analysis: COT report – Nov 20, 2023

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.


Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY provide reversal hints

The Japanese yen has finally found some much needed support this week. It is all to do with the falls in global bond yields, and the unwinding of carry trades. US yields slumped earlier this week after US CPI fell more than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed (and other central banks) will no longer raise rates further

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November 17, 2023 11:28 AM

EUR/USD, USD/JPY key levels ahead of US inflation: European open

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.


US Dollar Analysis: USD/JPY Tests 30+ Year Highs Ahead of US CPI

With the decline in the inflation rate seemingly stalling, a higher-than-expected inflation reading is likely to be more impactful to markets.

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November 13, 2023 11:05 AM
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Oil, USD/JPY forecast: Two trades to watch

Crude oil falls as demand concerns weigh. USD/JPY rises to a yearly high.

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November 13, 2023 03:35 AM

USD/JPY: Weakening upstream inflation bodes ill for BOJ wage acceleration

USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?

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November 12, 2023 09:02 PM