GBP/AUD: Central bank divergence put to the test as risk laden week begins
With plenty of major data and central bank speeches scheduled in the UK and Australia this week, the next few days may prove to be critical for the medium-term trajectory for GBP/AUD heading into 2024.
GBP/AUD: Scrutiny of RBA, BOE interest rate outlooks generate potential pivot point
The GBP/AUD uptrend faces a string of big tests over the next 24 hours, potentially influencing the outlook for interest rates from the BoE and RBA.
WTI crude oil, GBP/AUD analysis: Asian Open – 18/10/2023
WTI crude oil has pulled back into the support zone highlighted in yesterday's report for a potential move to $90. We also look at GBP/AUD, as it may have printed a multi-month top and the daily chart also appears on the cusp of a breakdown.
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GBP/USD, GBP/AUD: British pound breaking down on multiple fronts
GBP/USD has looked healthier on the charts, closing below a key support zone on Thursday. Downside risks for GBP/AUD are also growing.
USD/JPY rises into US CPI, GBP/AUD holds key support: European open
USD/JPY was rising on the back of USD strength earlier in the Asian session, with USD/JPY seemingly trying to close its large weekend opening gap ahead of US CPI data. GBP/AUD has also caught our eye as its 3-wave retracement is trying to form a base around a support cluster.
AUD, ASX 200 Analysis: The RBA paused, but it may not be the peak
The RBA may have held their cash rate in July, but it could have just easily gone the other way. Regardless, AUD pairs moved lower and the ASX 200 jumped to an 8-day high after the decision to pause.
European Open: China’s PMI squeeze in a surprise expansion, GBP/AUD turns higher
China’s PMI beat expectations and expanded, which could give global growth prospects a boost as China continues to reopen
European Open: Gold hits 3-month high, UK data dump up next
Gold enjoyed its best day in 8-months following the US inflation report and shows the potential to extend it run.
European Open: GBP/AUD eyes the April low ahead of BOE
The pound is looking increasingly vulnerable against the Australian dollar despite the prospects of a 25-bps hike from the BOE today.
Asian Open: Inflation measures and commodities continue to soar
Whichever metrics of inflation we look at, it is hard to argue there isn’t more inflation set to come our way whilst commodities continue to rally.
Asian Open: US dollar rises for a sixth day, positive lead from Wall Street
It’s been a decent week for the dollar, but there is the potential for mean reversion as we head towards the weekend with 100 resistance looming.
European Open: The pound perks up ahead of inflation data
UK inflation is expected to rise to 6% y/y today, and if we’re to see a strong inflation data set overall it could revive hopes of a less cautious BOE regarding future hikes.
European Open: Sentiment remains buoyant, bear flag on GBP/AUD
With the exception of China, Asian equity markets tracked Wall Street higher overnight after Jerome Powell effectively removed concerns of an aggressive rate hike path.
Asian Open: Worst day for ASX in 17-months, GBP/AUD breaks it down
A turbulent day across global equities made for a painful day in Asia, although Wall Street posted a sharp reversal heading into the close.
European Open: Goldman Sachs expect seven hikes from the Fed this year
Volatility was surprisingly well contained overnight, given the rising levels of it leading into the US close. Do we simply move on, or is it the calm before the storm?
European Open: Lira today, ErdoGONE tomorrow
The Turkish Lira hit fresh new lows overnight as President Erdogan fired his Finance Minister (for opposing rate cuts, along with everyone else).
European Open: China Manufacturing PMI crawls out of contraction
At 50.1, the headline PMI read is not exactly setting the world alight, but it was above expectations and shows the sector expended.
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European Open: Equities broadly lower, GBP/AUD breaks out
US markets are closed just after lunch today. But that is not to say it will be a dull session if price action overnight is anything to go by.
European Open: Has GBP Gone Too Far, Too Fast?
Maybe, although it depends on the pair. But we suspect GBP/AUD could be in for some mean reversion, given the technical levels it stalled at overnight.
Asian Open: Wall Street Higher on Positive Earnings and Economic Data
We look on track for a strong close this week for equity markets, further cementing our view that their corrective lows were printed earlier this month.
GBP/AUD faces key test
Given the possibility for a more meaningful dollar comeback, the pound’s potential strength may become more obvious against other currencies that are also falling against the greenback.
GBP/AUD set for a big rally?
So far this month, commodity currencies including the Australian and Canadian dollars had performed rather well. However it looks like that good run of form has come to an end for these currencies thanks to struggling metal and oil prices. With RBNZ due to make its policy decision later on tonight, the New Zealand dollar could also come under pressure in the event the central bank delivers a dovish policy statement. Metal prices are undermined in part because of a stronger US dollar, thanks to a hawkish Federal Reserve. With the Bank of England also turning hawkish, the AUD could fall against both the USD and GBP.
AU jobs report and BOE leave GBP/AUD in a precariousk spot
Data-starved traders finally got some much needed morsels to chew on, namely the AU employment report in today’s Asian session and this morning’s BOE “Super Thursday” festivities. Let’s tackle these key releases in order and discuss what they may mean for GBP/AUD, a notoriously volatile currency pair.