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GBP/AUD: Central bank divergence put to the test as risk laden week begins

With plenty of major data and central bank speeches scheduled in the UK and Australia this week, the next few days may prove to be critical for the medium-term trajectory for GBP/AUD heading into 2024.

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November 12, 2023 07:52 PM
Multiple pound notes £5, £20 and £50 Pound Sterling

GBP/USD outlook: BoE’s hawkish pause not a game changer

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision, the GBP/USD was holding steady near 1.22 handle, benefitting slightly from the dollar’s weaker response to what was a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve rate decision. Not many people were expecting a rate hike from the BoE either, with the market attaching a 93% probability of a second consecutive hold after 15 back-to-back interest rate hikes.

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November 2, 2023 09:05 AM

British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Coils Ahead of BOE “Super Thursday”

With no change to BOE interest rates expected, GBP/USD traders will key in on the BOE’s vote split and economic forecasts.

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October 31, 2023 02:55 PM

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FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023

We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).

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October 26, 2023 08:20 PM

GBP/USD: Looming US data creates squeeze risk for unloved and oversold pound

With GBP/USD sentiment so poor, and major US economic data arriving later this week, conditions look ideal for a countertrend squeeze over the coming days.

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September 27, 2023 12:26 AM

GBP/USD analysis: BoE decides against another interest rate hike

Earlier, the Bank of England announced interest rates would be kept unchanged in a surprise move (not to us) and the pound took another plunge, dropping below 1.2250 in initial reaction. The BoE’s policy statement was somewhat hawkish and the MPC split. This means that the next few policy decisions could be close calls, especially if inflation doesn’t come down fast enough.

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September 21, 2023 08:00 AM

GBP/USD: BoE ‘hawkish hike’ likely required to prevent further downside

Only a ‘hawkish hike’ from the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to be enough to turn around the fortunes of GBP/USD given rapidly weakening fundamentals.

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September 20, 2023 08:43 PM

GBP/USD outlook: Inflation and central bank meetings take center stage – BoE Preview

The GBP/USD will come into sharp focus over the next couple days, with two pivotal events on the horizon: the FOMC and BoE rate decisions. Additionally, traders are anticipating the release of UK CPI and retail sales data, as well as global PMI figures this week. These developments collectively have the potential to shape the near-term GBP/USD outlook. UK CPI could sway BoE decision, with the UK central bank likely to mimic ECB's dovish hike. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to go for a hawkish hold.

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September 19, 2023 09:00 AM
Multiple pound notes £5, £20 and £50 Pound Sterling

GBP/USD Outlook: BoE and FOMC meetings make Cable Currency Pair of the Week

The GBP/USD is in focus ahead of this week’s key events: FOMC and BoE rate decisions. We also have UK CPI and retail sales, as well as global PMI figures to look forward to this week. The BoE is likely to deliver a final 25 bps hike, while FOMC is seen holding policy unchanged. The GBP/USD could be heading to low 1.20s in this busy week.

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September 18, 2023 08:00 AM

FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

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September 17, 2023 12:54 AM
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GBP/USD: sticky situation for longs should UK wages growth undershoot

Sticky wages growth is one of the few positives for GBP/USD right now, keeping the prospect for rate hikes from the BOE in play.

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September 11, 2023 08:25 PM

British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Bulls Boosted by Bets on BOE Bazooka

GBP/USD is approaching near-term resistance around 1.2800 ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales report...

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Pound analysis: GBP/USD outlook unmoved as BoE hikes rates by 25 bps

Governor Bailey gave very little away in his initial comments, although he didn’t push back against market pricing of another rate increase in September. Traders’ focus will now turn to the US again, where long-dated bonds have been selling off since that Fitch downgrade.

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August 3, 2023 08:00 AM

British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Breaks Down Ahead of BOE, NFP

Traders are pricing in about a 40% chance of a 50bps rate hike from Andrew Bailey and Company, so regardless of what the BOE decides, a significant portion of traders will be caught offsides, presenting a recipe for volatility in UK assets.

Multiple pound notes £5, £20 and £50 Pound Sterling

GBP/USD forecast: Cable faces key test from both sides of the pond – BoE Preview

Key events from US and UK taking place this week means the GBP/USD is facing a key test . As well some more top-tier US data in the next few days, we also have the Bank of England’s rate decision to look forward to. Our GBP/USD forecast could change materially by Friday. But for now, we are expecting moderate further downside, owing to the dollar’s overall positive trend.

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August 1, 2023 08:00 AM

British Pound Analysis: All Eyes on 1.2850 Support for GBP/USD

If the global economy is showing signs of downshifting, GBP/USD may be particularly vulnerable...

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British Pound Analysis: GBP/USD Under Pressure Ahead of Quarter-End, 1.25 in Focus

Many analysts are attributing this week’s downdraft in GBP/USD to month- and quarter-end rebalancing ahead of the weekend, so there’s certainly potential for a bounce as we head into next week.

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GBP/USD, USD/CHF Analysis: SNB and BOE to hike by 25 or 50bp today?

The BOE and SNB are expected to hike by 25bp today. But a 50bp hike may not be out of the question, which puts GBP/USD and USD/CHF firmly onto trader's radars today.

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GBP/USD forecast: What does BoE’s rate hike mean for pound?

Despite struggling post the BoE rate decision, the longer-term GBP/USD forecast remains bullish. But in the short-term, a drop back to 1.25 cannot be ruled out.

EURGBP outlook, USDJPY outlook: Two trades to watch

Will the BoE boost the pound? USD/JPY falls despite dovish BoJ minutes & after cooling US CPI.

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May 11, 2023 03:03 AM
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European Open: China’s CPI barely inflates, BOE meeting in focus

At 0.1% y/y, China’s consumer price inflation is at levels other economies can only dream of. Next up the BOE’s monetary policy decision.

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May 11, 2023 02:08 AM
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GBP/USD forecast: BoE Preview

The ongoing bullish GBP/USD forecast is likely to change only modestly as the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to deliver a dovish surprise with inflation remaining in double-digits.

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May 9, 2023 09:30 AM
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GBP/USD outlook: US inflation and BOE meeting to drive the pound

US inflation and Thursday's BOE meeting are key events for GBP/USD traders to keep an eye on, ahead of the UK's data dump on Friday.