FX

AUD/USD and EUR/USD are looking vulnerable on the charts, pulling back in recent days on the back of disappointing domestic economic data. With uncertainty over the US, Eurozone and Chinese economic outlook elevated, it comes across as the type of environment in which the US dollar would normally shine.

The question now for AUD/USD and ASX 200 is whether the tone truly reflects what the RBA is thinking, or will we see a repeat of recent months where subsequent commentary has been far more hawkish in nature?

Chinese economic activity is nearing stall speed with the government’s purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) falling further in November, surprising markets to the downside for a second consecutive month.

Gold is knocking on the door of record highs heading into what has recently been an extremely strong period for bullion prices. But having rallied so hard since early October, it comes across as being priced for perfection near-term.

A softer US dollar has helped AUD/USD and gold push towards key technical levels, suggesting the near-term price performance may determine their longer-term trajectory as we head towards 2024.

USD/JPY traders barely acknowledged the release of Japan’s October inflation report, reinforcing the view the only thing that matters for the pair right now is developments in the US economy, unless the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or starts to normalise monetary policy.

An unusually large reaction to volatile second tier US economic data has boosted the US dollar, seeing USD/JPY and AUD/USD reserve part of their early week moves. But whether it is justified is contentious, suggesting there may be grounds to fade.

USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?

USD/JPY intervention warnings escalate, PBOC's record push against market forces, USD King for a reason and US real yields push higher before Treasury refunding announcement. Gold is struggling in the difficult environment.

NZD/USD is falling in the wake of a soft New Zealand employment report, reinforcing the view that when the RBNZ next moves interest rates, it’s far more likely to be a cut than hike.

No weekend hangover for US stock futures, bonds calm before BOJ, AUD/USD breaks downtrend while iron ore breaks higher.

Australian retail sales surged in September, solidifying the view the RBA is likely to restart its interest rate hiking cycle when it meets on November 7.

Amazon delivers, crude gains on renewed skirmishes, Australian inflation expectations jump while Tokyo price pressures turn up the heat on BOJ.

Underlying inflation in Tokyo came in well above expectations for October, a potentially important development for USD/JPY and the future of the BOJ's yield curve control program.

Crude oil's grip on markets, AUD/USD hammered as RBA rate hike bets slashed, BOJ faces important choice as USD/JPY tops 150 while Nasdaq 100 rally faces it's moment of truth. Gold continues to glisten despite the tough environment.

Tumbling US stock futures and neutral language from RBA Governor Michele Bullock has seen AUD/USD plunge in early Asian trade, continuing the sizeable reversal seen on Wednesday following the release of Australia’s Q3 hot inflation report.

Australia inflation too hot to ignore, China confidence remains elusive, Hang Seng traders receive a gift while something is up with Japan's bond market.