AUD monthly outlook: February 2024
AUD/USD suffered its worst month in 11 in January, after traders scaled back bets of several Fed cuts this year which helped the US dollar rally and force AUD/USD -3.5% lower for the month. The focus now shifts to next week's RBA meeting.
Australian Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Slammed to the 200-Day Moving Average
AUD/USD was flying high in late-2023 trade, and price has pulled back aggressively to start 2024. AUD/USD is now re-testing the 200-day moving average as support.
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
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Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Plunges Back Down Under
Australian Dollar plunged back below the 2023 yearly open this week with AUD/USD now searching support. The levels that matter on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rips into Make-or-Break Resistance
Australian Dollar rallied more than 3.8% off the yearly low with a two-week advance now testing critical resistance. The levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.
Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Moment of Truth at Support
Australian Dollar plunged into major support at the yearly lows today- moment of truth for the bears. The levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.
Australian Dollar technical forecast: AUD/USD turns at trend resistance
Australian Dollar plunged nearly 1.8% off the monthly high with AUD/USD turning from technical downtrend resistance. The levels that matter on the Aussie weekly chart.
Australian Dollar short-term outlook: AUD/USD bears emerge
Australian Dollar is testing uptrend support today and is threatening a deeper correction in the Aussie. Levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.
Australian Dollar technical forecast: AUD/USD eyes trend resistance
Australian Dollar surged nearly 3.7% off the yearly lows with Aussie now eyeing key technical resistance. The levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.
The RBA hike by 25bp – but are they one step closer to discussing a pause?
An initial glance at RBA's statement suggests they are nearing the end of the tightening cycle, and perhaps one step closer to publicly discussing a pause.
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AUD/JPY Is Testing Its Breakout Levels Ahead Of Tomorrow’s CPI Data
Whilst Australian employment held up, it doesn’t let inflation off the hook as a weak print tomorrow could see rate cut calls resurface.
AUD/JPY’s Big Breakout Boosts Bullish Bias
For the second day in a row, the Japanese yen is the weakest major currency as today’s heavy risk-on bent leads to selling in the safe haven currency. Meanwhile, the aussie has caught a big bid despite the RBA citing “increased risks” to the household sector.
RBA Hold At 1.5%, Maintain Confidence With Employment
Overall the statement remains fairly-balanced, although it continues to appear that RBA’s confidence in the labour market is fending off a dovish stance. We still see potantial for AUD/NZD's bullish wedge to play out.
USD Perks Up, AUD/USD Slips Ahead Of Fed
The US dollar perked up mid-Asia, weighing notably on commodity currencies AUD and NZD ahead of the meeting. With a likely swing high in pace, AUD/USD could be headed for 70c.
Australia's GDP Miss Weighs On AUD
The Australian dollar took a tumble across the board after today’s GDP miss. Coming in a 2.3% YoY versus 2.5% expected, it takes the 2018 average down to 2.9% and below RBA’s estimate of 3%.
AUD/USD Bulls Could Target 2019 High at 0.7300 on Positive US-China Trade Headlines
US and Chinese trade negotiators kicked off another round of talks today after President Trump labeled last week’s discussions in Beijing “very productive.” Today and tomorrow feature lower-level officials to the table, with higher-level policymakers including US Trade Representative Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Vice Prenier Liu He, coming to the table on Thursday and Friday.
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Bottom Drops Out of AUD/USD as RBA Lowe Shifts to Neutral
Mirroring last week’s shift at the Federal Reserve, the RBA has now shifted its future interest rate expectations into neutral.
AUD/JPY: The FX-Stock Market Correlation Play
One of the first things that new traders to the FX markets learn is that many currencies are correlated with other markets. For instance, the close relationship between oil and the Canadian dollar or certain metals and the Australian dollar are intuitive given the importance of exporting those commodities for the Canadian and Australian economies.
AUD/USD Presses 3-Month Highs on the Eve of Trump-Xi Meeting on Trade
Of all the major currencies, the Australian dollar is perhaps the most sensitive to trends in global trade. The country’s commodity-centric economy and close ties with China mean that any slowdown in international business may be seen Down Under first.
AUD/USD: Bulls Pin Hopes on Economic Data Amidst Strong Bearish Trend
Two weeks ago, we noted that AUD/USD was testing a 20-month low on a “perfect storm” of bearish news. With trade and geopolitical tensions still running high, concerns about mortgage rates and metal prices remaining elevated, and bond yields continuing to fall, the fundamental outlook for the Australian economy is little changed.
AUD/USD Testing 20-Month Low on “Perfect Storm” of Bearish News
As the final week of the month draws to a close, Aussie bulls are clearly licking their wounds. The Australian dollar has been the worst-performing over the month, week, and day so far as the currency faces a “perfect storm” of bearish developments...
AUD/USD: Bearish Trend Still Dominates Ahead of AU Jobs
The price action so far today is emblematic of a textbook “risk off” day: stocks are falling across the globe, oil is trading off by nearly 3%, bond yields are generally retreating, and the yen is the strongest performing major currency (though we would note that gold bugs still can’t seem to catch a break!).