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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD: BOJ may push back against mounting rate hike bets

USD/JPY tumbled on Thursday on speculation the BOJ may move pre-emptively to lift interest rates before wage pressures have materialised. Such a move would be economically risky and go against recent BOJ statements.

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December 7, 2023 06:43 PM

USD/JPY: BOJ not giving up on abolishing negative interest rate policy despite obvious risks

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is not giving up on normalising monetary policy despite significant uncertainty over the outlook for the Japanese and global economies, putting USD/JPY under modest pressure on what’s been an otherwise quiet session in Asia.

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December 6, 2023 11:18 PM

USD/JPY Analysis: Moment of Truth for the Yen’s 2023 Trend

USD/JPY bulls are defending support in the 147.00 area, but the pair is vulnerable to a big breakdown from here...

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December 5, 2023 03:36 PM

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USD/JPY: Offshore drivers remain in control unless the BOJ can normalise policy

USD/JPY traders barely acknowledged the release of Japan’s October inflation report, reinforcing the view the only thing that matters for the pair right now is developments in the US economy, unless the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or starts to normalise monetary policy.

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November 23, 2023 07:27 PM

AUD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Weaker Japanese yen adds to near-term upside risk

Whether it’s any major FX pair against the yen or the Nikkei 225, the last of least resistance right now seems to be higher with the BOJ maintaining its ultra-dovish stance.

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November 13, 2023 08:11 PM

USD/JPY: Weakening upstream inflation bodes ill for BOJ wage acceleration

USD/JPY is trading 40 pips away from multi-decade highs as upstream inflationary pressures in Japan are coming off hard. Perhaps that explains we've had no verbal intervention attempts from the government today?

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November 12, 2023 09:02 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Narrowing yield differentials with the US amplify downside risks

If you believe the Fed is done hiking rates and will be forced to ease policy aggressively next year, it’s hard to be bullish USD/JPY or the Nikkei 225 given the role yield differentials and FX fluctuations have played in underpinning both this year.

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November 5, 2023 08:24 PM

Nikkei 225, USD/JPY: Situation “tense” as speculative moves amplify BOJ intervention risk

Japan’s Nikkei 225 has endured a whirlwind 24 hours, mirroring the USD/JPY in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s (BPJ) October monetary policy meeting. It’s surged more than 1000 points from the lows hit on Tuesday, largely reflecting stiffening tailwinds for Japanese exporter earnings.

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October 31, 2023 08:41 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Bouncing back despite BOJ abandoning hard cap on bond yields

USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 are rising in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) latest interest rate decision, reacting to a smaller-than-expected adjustment to the banks yield curve control (YCC) program.

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October 31, 2023 01:04 AM

USD/JPY implied volatility spikes ahead of BOJ: Asian Open – 31/10/2023

1-day implied volatility has blown out on USD/JPY ahead of today’s BOJ meeting, with its 100-pip implied move coming in at 292% of its 20-day average and the 5-day implied volatility sitting at 179 pips.

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October 30, 2023 05:00 PM

US Dollar Analysis: USD/JPY Dips Ahead of BOJ, Fed

USD/JPY is showing signs of rolling over, but remains in a longer-term uptrend ahead of the BOJ and Fed

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October 30, 2023 02:56 PM

USD/JPY: Big call looms for BOJ YCC as Tokyo inflationary pressures heat up

Underlying inflation in Tokyo came in well above expectations for October, a potentially important development for USD/JPY and the future of the BOJ's yield curve control program.

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October 26, 2023 10:08 PM
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FOMC, BOJ and BOE on tap: The Week Ahead – 27/10/2023

We have a busy calendar with what would usually be ‘red flag’ days, including central bank meetings with the FOMC, BOJ and BOE. There’s a reasonable chance we’ll see no action across all three, but the bigger response for global markets could be if the BOJ widen or abandon their yield curve control (YCC).

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October 26, 2023 08:20 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Difficult to ignore the noise surrounding a BOJ early exit

Speculation surrounding the future of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) yield curve control program continues to thwart attempts to push USD/JPY higher, combining with the threat of intervention from the BOJ to cap on rallies in the pair.

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October 23, 2023 07:22 PM

AUD/JPY, WTI crude oil: Israel-Hamas conflict, inflation reports to set the tone

Geopolitics, inflation reports and sentiment towards Chinese markets will likely dominate proceedings for AUD/JPY and crude oil this week, putting their respective uptrends to the test during a time when investor risk appetite is particularly weak.

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October 22, 2023 07:13 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Moment of truth as traders grapple with BOJ intervention threat

For USD/JPY and Nikkei 225, what the BOJ chooses to do near-term will likely be felt well into the future.

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October 19, 2023 09:38 PM

USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Looking toppy nearing range highs, await China data

It’s been a turbulent 24 hours for USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 as traders attempt to digest the impact from the hot “supercore” inflation reading in the US released overnight on Thursday.

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October 12, 2023 09:26 PM

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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Implications should the BOJ never reach escape velocity on rates

Should the BOJ fail to reach escape velocity from ultra-easy monetary policy settings, it will have implications for the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY as we move towards 2024.

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October 11, 2023 11:09 PM

Nikkei 225: Important day for Japanese stocks as slide stalls at key support

Nikkei 225 sits on a major support, making near-term price action potentially important for its longer-term trajectory.

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October 3, 2023 08:04 PM

USD/JPY Q4 Outlook: Risks tilted higher as fundamentals battle BOJ intervention threat

USD/JPY likely to continue grinding higher as bulls navigate the evolving threat posed by potential Bank of Japan intervention.

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October 3, 2023 05:30 PM

USD/JPY: playing the range as BOJ invention threat counteracts fundamentals

Should the Japanese government order the Bank of Japan to intervene in FX markets, it deserves the savage USD/JPY bounce that will almost inevitably be coming its way.

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September 22, 2023 12:38 AM
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USD/JPY: divergent central bank messaging generates renewed upside risk

The next few days will be pivotal for USD/JPY as rate decisions from the Fed and BOJ collide, providing an environment where we could get an explosive move in either direction.

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September 19, 2023 07:38 PM

FOMC, BOE, BOJ meetings, CPIs and flash PMIs: The Week Ahead – 15/09/2023

Whilst the Fed are expected to hold rates steady in September, next week’s FOMC meeting also includes the quarterly staff projections. And changes to dot plot or CPI estimates can be as good as a hike where market reactions are concerned. The odds of another BOE are next week are not as high as they were, which makes the preceding inflation report paramount to expectations for their next decision. And whilst the BOJ are unlikely to act, that is no reason to drop your guard given their tendency to surprise once in a while. We also have flash PMIs for major regions and inflation data to mull over.

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September 17, 2023 12:54 AM