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AUD monthly wrap: November 2023
The Australian dollar did well to hold above 63c through October despite the negative headlines thrown its way. And with the increased odds that the RBA may have a hike or two up their sleeve, perhaps AUD can find the strength to post a rally should sentiment allow.
GBP/AUD: Scrutiny of RBA, BOE interest rate outlooks generate potential pivot point
The GBP/AUD uptrend faces a string of big tests over the next 24 hours, potentially influencing the outlook for interest rates from the BoE and RBA.
Powell prepares to pontificate to policymakers, AUD/USD tests 0.6700 support
Some officials and Fed watchers have suggested a 50 basis-point move should be on the table if inflation fails to slow...
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The RBA are expected to hike by 25bp tomorrow
Whilst money markets favour a 25bp hike tomorrow, we shouldn’t discount the potential for a 15bp or even a 50bp hike.
AU employment miss adds to the Aussie's woes
A weak lead form Wall Street weighed on the Aussie overnight, with today’s employment miss adding to its downside pressure.
Australian business sentiment stalls, consumer sentiment falls
Business confidence came to a standstill according to a monthly NAB (National Australian Bank) survey, whilst consumer confidence is its lowest since the pandemic.
European Open: AUD weakest major post-RBA, FTSE set to bounce?
AUD traders were caught off guard with a smaller than expected rate hike by the RBA, sending AUD lower. The FTSE shows the potential to bounce form key support.
European Open: AUD weakest major post-RBA, FTSE set to bounce?
AUD traders were caught off guard with a smaller than expected rate hike by the RBA, sending AUD lower. The FTSE shows the potential to bounce form key support.
Thumping AU jobs report supports further gains for AUDNZD
Good news today for the Australian economy as the employment report for June stunned with across-the-board strength.
AUD traders ‘sold the fact’ as RBA hiked by 50-bps as expected
The Australian dollar was promptly sold off on the confirmation that the RBA hikes rates by 50-bps, as traders seemingly bought the rumour and sold the fact.
European Open: The RBA opt for a nifty 50, USD/JPY breaks 132
The RBA didn’t hold back and opted for a 50-bps hike at today’s meeting, which is a first since February 2000.
Futures traders load up on AUD longs (despite falling prices)
With prices falling whilst futures traders increase their bullish exposure to the Australian dollar, we’re keen to see if it can hold above 0.73 and form a countertrend bounce.
Weekly COT report: Fastest pace of AUD short covering since March 2020
Last week, AUD shorts were culled at their fastest pace since March 2020, when eye watering levels of stimulus was rolled out at their height of the pandemic.
Weekly COT report: Managed funds most bullish on gold in 3-months
Bullish exposure continues to fall for the US dollar despite the Fed on the cusp of beginning their rate-hike cycle.
Weekly COT report: Net-long exposure to gold fell sharply last week
Given the lacklustre bounce on gold alongside a rise in short bets and closure of longs last week, we retain the view that its recent bounce is corrective.
Asian Open: ASX 200 on track for its worst month since the pandemic
The Australian dollar was lower against all majors except NZD last week. It wasn’t a great week for the ASX 200 either which is on track for its worst month since the pandemic.
Asian Open: Flash PMI’s in focus, AUD probes trend support
Flash PMI data is released across Asia, Europe and the US. And on the back of last week’s risk-off week then markets may be more sensitive to soft data should it disappoint.
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Weekly COT Report: Bearish exposure to AUD hits a new record
AT -91.5k contracts net-short, it is the most aggressively bearish exposure on AUD futures by large speculators on record.
European Open: Risk-off tone recedes, bear trap on AUD?
Whilst not a risk-on session, there was a notable lift in sentiment across equity markets and currencies. And AUD’s false break of 71c hasn’t gone unnoticed either.
AU Q3 GDP beat boosts the AUDUSD
Australian Q3 GDP fell by -1.9%, significantly beating market expectations for a -2.7% fall. The fall is the first quarter of negative growth since the 6.8% fall recorded in the June Quarter of 2020 and means the Australian economy is once again smaller than where it was pre the onset of the pandemic.
Rise of new Covid variant sparks risk-off trade in Asia
Rise of new Covid variant sparks risk-off trade in Asia
Asian Open: AUD/CAD Looks Set to Head South
Lower trading volumes due to Thanksgiving in the US made for a quiet session overnight, but that didn’t prevent the AUD/CAD cross making a ‘break’ for it.
Weekly COT Report: Pound Shorts Intensify
Traders were their most bearish on British pound futures in 17-months, according to last week’s commitment of traders report.