Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Struggles at Resistance
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD trades to fresh yearly high- rally stalls at uptrend resistance
- Australian Dollar monthly & weekly opening-range breakouts pending
- Resistance 6550/53 (key), 6622, 6671– Support 6458, ~6411, 6332/62 (key)
The Australian Dollar surged more than 3.3% off the June lows with AUD/USD stalling at uptrend resistance into the monthly open. The pullback is carving the weekly & monthly opening-ranges just below resistance and we are looking for a breakout. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that the immediate focus was, “on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance.” Aussie defended 6400 in late June before rallying with a breach above 6550 into the close of the month failing at the upper parallel. AUD/USD is now nearly 1.6% off the highs with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below Fibonacci resistance- looking for a potential breakout in the days ahead.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD reversing pitchfork resistance with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline / weekly open at 6550/53- looking for a reaction off this mark.
A top-side breach of the weekly opening-range exposes the upper parallel again, currently near ~6600. Ultimately, a close above the September low at 6622 is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 low at 6671 and the 78.6% retracement near 6723.
Initial support rests with the June low-day close (LDC) at 6458- note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a break / close below would threaten a larger Aussie pullback. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 200-day moving average (currently ~6411) and 6332/62- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the April / August 2024 lows, and the May swing low. Losses beyond this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / larger reversal is underway.
Bottom line: The Aussie rally failed into the trendline resistance with the monthly opening-range taking shape just below. While the broader outlook is still constructive, the advance remains vulnerable here and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly range (6486-6553) for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF Aussie is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 6622 needed to mark uptrend resumption. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.
Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.
FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.
© FOREX.COM 2026