Crude Oil Forecast: WTI crude attempts to return to the $60 level amid weaker global demand expectations

With just one session left before the trading week ends, WTI crude has begun to show consistent short-term weakness, posting a decline of nearly 4.00% in the current session. Renewed selling pressure has regained relevance after recent reports pointed to a potential slowdown in global oil demand for 2026, reducing short-term confidence in crude price performance. If demand expectations continue to deteriorate, this environment could sustain further downside pressure in the coming sessions.

Demand outlook begins to soften

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for this year, cutting the estimate by approximately 83,000 barrels per day. This adjustment reflects seasonal weakness in the oil market and a more moderate outlook for global economic growth.

Global demand is now expected to increase by around 849,000 barrels per day compared to 2025, reaching a total of 104.87 million barrels per day. In the previous report, growth had been projected at 932,000 barrels per day, signaling a more cautious view regarding demand momentum in the months ahead.

This new report has triggered greater caution in the oil market and weakened the confidence that had built after OPEC+ announced on February 1 a pause in production increases. The expectation of more moderate demand growth has cooled recent optimism, as while a sustained increase in supply is not currently anticipated, neither is a solid rebound in consumption capable of supporting a consistent price recovery.

In this context, although the absence of an oversupply scenario is positive for the market, it must be accompanied by solid demand to sustain appetite for crude. As long as demand fails to show clear signs of recovery, this environment could continue fueling more meaningful selling pressure in WTI over the coming weeks.

What about market confidence?

The MM User Sentiment Indicator currently shows bullish sentiment at 16.00%, while neutral sentiment has risen to 50.40% and bearish sentiment stands at 33.60%. This distribution reflects a market dominated by caution, with limited bullish conviction in the short term.

Source: Macromicro

This setup suggests that confidence remains in a prolonged period of uncertainty, with few signs of strong demand capable of driving prices higher. As long as neutrality and pessimism remain elevated, WTI is likely to continue displaying indecision and potentially additional weakness in upcoming sessions.

WTI technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The long-term downtrend remains relevant: For several months, WTI has maintained a clearly defined bearish structure that remains the most significant technical formation on the chart. So far, no bullish move has been strong enough to threaten this structure. If selling pressure consolidates again in the short term, the downtrend line could regain prominence and continue to dominate price action.
   
• RSI: The RSI is hovering near the 50 level, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish momentum over the past 14 sessions. This dynamic reflects a phase of indecision that could persist if the indicator continues oscillating in this range.
   
• MACD: The MACD also shows neutral behavior, with the histogram moving around the zero line. This suggests that short-term moving average momentum lacks clear dominance, reinforcing the possibility of sideways or indecisive price action in the near term.
   

Key levels:

• $65 – Key resistance: A zone aligned with recent highs and near the prevailing downtrend line. A sustained move above this level could reinforce a bullish bias and begin to challenge the existing bearish structure.
   
• $62 – Near-term barrier: A recent neutrality level aligned with the 200-period moving average. Continued price oscillation around this zone could lead to short-term range consolidation.
   
• $60 – Key support: A significant psychological level that also aligns with the 50-period moving average. Sustained moves below this area could reinforce the bearish bias and extend the long-term downtrend in the coming weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Follow him on: @julianpineda25