Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: OPEC Meetings, Tariff Blocks, and Court Appeals

Key Events to Watch:

• OPEC JMMC Meetings on output hike plans
• Trump accuses China of violating the tariff truce
• Key U.S. economic data: NFP and ISM PMIs amid heated trade talks
• Crude oil inventories and signs of strengthening summer demand

Tariff Disputes and Legal Uncertainty

Crude oil has been trading within a range of nearly $10—between $64.80 and $55—since April 9, following the announcement of delayed reciprocal tariffs until July 9. Recent developments have added further complexity: a U.S. trade court initially blocked the tariffs, deeming them illegal, only for a federal appeals court to temporarily reinstate them.

Markets now await a final submission and ruling on the tariff dispute, expected by June 9. According to Bloomberg, officials say the recent supply hike reflects Saudi Arabia’s intent to pressure over-producing members like Kazakhstan and Iraq, regain market share from U.S. shale producers, and align with President Trump’s calls for cheaper oil.

The latest OPEC meeting approved a 411,000 bpd increase for July, and as the group leans toward unwinding cuts through 2025, a favorable court ruling that blocks tariffs could further support their plan by improving global sentiment.

However, if tariff negotiations continue unresolved, markets may stagnate until the July 9 deadline, where outcomes could range from finalized trade agreements to harsh tariff reimpositions. If tariffs proceed—but economic indicators hold firm—oil demand could still rise in tandem with a potential economic recovery.

Inventories and Summer Demand Display Positive Insights

US crude stocks fell by 4.2 million barrels last week from 1.3M towards -2.8M, adding further support to rising oil prices as Summer Demand sets foot on a chart facing increased uncertainty between anticipation and solid economic metrics.

Geopolitical and Legal Risk Remain Elevated

• Ongoing Israel–Gaza, Israel–Iran, and Russia-Ukraine tensions raise the risk of supply disruptions and global defense escalations.
• Legal uncertainty over tariff reinstatement vs. cancellation continues to weigh on sentiment and amplify market volatility.
• Markets are closely watching whether the Trump administration may seek alternative legal routes to impose tariffs even if court challenges succeed.

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Between tariff block hopes and risks of the Trump administration to impose taxes on imports through alternative legal mechanisms, uncertainty can be seen in the market’s price action as we head into the weekly close. This ongoing uncertainty appears to be tilting sentiment back to the bullish side, with crude oil forming a smaller consolidation pattern on the daily time frame.

This setup may be positioning the market for a potential breakout toward the $71 mark. Key Scenarios to Watch:

Bullish Scenario:

A sustained move and clean hold above the $65 zone could extend gains toward $66.90, $69.30, and eventually $71.

Bearish Scenario:

Conversely, a clear move back below the $60 level may lead to further downside, targeting $59.20, $58.30, and ultimately the key $55 support. This $55 level holds significant weight from both a weekly momentum and Fibonacci perspective and could act as a long-term bullish pivot. If $55 is breached, the next meaningful support may lie near $49, which could serve as a potential base for renewed long-term bullish positioning.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves