The EUR/USD pair is facing the key 1.1580 support level as the US Dollar Index continues to hold bullish ground above the 99 mark ahead of tonight’s FOMC minutes. Technically, US dollar dominance remains intact, as discussed in my latest webinar here:
Inflation reports from both Canada and the UK came in lower than expected and below previous readings this week, easing hawkish pressures from their central banks. However, persistent US inflation continues to push US bond yields toward fresh yearly highs, increasing pressure on major currency pairs, including the euro, in an environment that continues to favor the US dollar.
CME FED Watch Tool
Source: CME
So far, expectations for another Fed rate hike continue to build toward year-end, particularly for the December meeting, with over 40% of market participants pricing in a potential 25-basis-point hike.
Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation and Tokyo inflation figures are due next week — events that could weigh on the US dollar, especially if the Bank of Japan leans further toward a near-term rate hike. Key EUR/USD levels to watch are outlined below.
EURUSD Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a monthly time frame perspective, EUR/USD remains in a corrective phase after testing the 1.20 mark, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement ratio of the broader downtrend between 2008 and 2022. This technical structure continues to favor long-term US dollar dominance.
Bullish Scenario
A breakout back above 1.1850, 1.1930, and 1.20 would strengthen the long-term bullish outlook, exposing upside potential toward the 44% and 50% Fibonacci retracement ratios near 1.24 and 1.28 respectively.
This scenario would likely require a sustained breakout above the 1.2250 level and the trendline connecting the higher highs since July 2023.
Bearish Scenario
A breakdown below the previously respected 1.1580 and 1.14 support levels would expose EUR/USD to further downside risks toward the 1.13–1.12 zone, and in more extreme scenarios, toward 1.10 — the long-standing resistance turned support since July 2023.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
