Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Charge Pivotal Resistance- Inflection Ahead

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold surges into confluent resistance at a pivotal slope as XAU/USD presses into the median-line of the yearly advance.
Immediate focus is on a potential inflection off this zone- bullish scenario remains viable while above the weekly open
Resistance 4172 (key), 4252, 4356/82- Support 4065, 4002/24 (key), 3930

Gold prices surged nearly 3.3% off the weekly lows with XAU/USD now testing key resistance at the yearly upslope. This zone marks a critical technical pivot, and the reaction here will be essential in determining whether the latest rally can extend or if an early-month inflection will take shape. While the broader structure remains constructive, the bullish scenario hinges on holding above the weekly open, with a close beyond resistance needed to clear the path for the next major leg higher. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that a XAU/USD had rallied through the median-line of the 2025 uptrend and that, “Ultimately, a topside breach / close above the 10/17 reversal close at 4252 is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend..” The advance extended more than 8% off the monthly low, with XAU/USD registering an intraday high at 4245 before exhausting. Last week’s 5.8% pullback found support at the monthly open, and the subsequent rebound is now pressing back into median-line resistance again today. The immediate focus is on possible inflection off this slope into the monthly cross.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD rallying into resistance today at the November high-day close (HDC) at 4171. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this level near-term. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 1.618% extension of the November 18 advance and the October reversal close at 4241/52. A breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the uptrend with the next major technical consideration eyed at 4356/382- a region defined by the record HDC, the 100% extension of the late-October advance, and the record intraday high.

Weekly open support rests at 4065 and is backed by the November open and the 61.8% retracement of the late-October rally at 4002/23. Losses below this threshold would threaten a more significant correction within the yearly uptrend with subsequent support objectives eyed at the November low at 3930 and the 50% retracement of the August advance at 3846. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold next month and daily close below this slope would be needed to invalidate the 2025 uptrend (broader bullish invalidation).

Bottom line: Gold has rallied into confluent resistance at a pivotal slope, and the immediate focus is on possible inflection into the high-day close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4252 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we are heading into a holiday weekend and the close of the month on Friday with traders anticipating next week’s November ADP report for a more up-to-date assessment of the labor markets. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

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