Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Surges 19% - Bulls Test Key Resistance

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Gold continues to test a major resistance zone after surging more than 19.3% from the March low.
XAU/USD has held near highs for multiple sessions, signaling building upside pressure
A breakout above resistance would mark continuation of the broader uptrend while failure risks a pullback within the current recovery
Resistance 4855-4910 (key), 5025, 5133- Support 4669, 4533/40 (key), 4406

Gold prices remain firm near recent highs, with XAU/USD continuing to press into a key resistance zone following a strong recovery off the March low. The sustained advance reflects improving near-term momentum, but the broader outlook now hinges on whether price can break through this barrier. A successful breach would reinforce the bullish trend, while rejection could signal a pause or pullback within the ongoing recovery. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was approaching pivotal resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4533 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 4910 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” Gold rallied more than 7.2% off the monthly low and has been testing key resistance for the past two-weeks at 4855-4910- a region defined by the 100% extension of the March advance and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline. The immediate focus is on a reaction off this threshold for guidance with the bulls vulnerable while below.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a near-term channel with the rally testing pivotal resistance into the close of the week. A topside breach / close above this level would mark uptrend resumption towards the 61.8% retracement of the broader decline off the record high at 5025. Note that channel resistance converges on this threshold next week. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 78.6% retracement at 5133.

Initial support rests along the channel line and is backed by the April open at 4667. Key support / bullish invalidation remains with the 61.8% retracement of the October advance and the 2025 high-day close (HDC) at 4533/40. Losses below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the low-day close (LDC) at 4406 and the yearly open at 4319.

Bottom line: The gold rally is testing pivotal resistance here and the immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 4533 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 4910 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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