Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Coiled for November Breakout
USD/CHF is poised for a November breakout as the post-Fed advance tests resistance into the monthly close. Battle lines drawn on the Swiss Franc short-term charts.
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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF rebounds more than 2.2% off the monthly lows- post-Fed advance now testing resistance into the weekly and monthly close.
- Focus heading into November is on a potential breakout of multi-month consolidation pattern
- Resistance 8040, 8072/76 (key), 8098- Support 8007, 7964 (key), 7911
The Swiss Franc is back on the defensive this week, with USD/CHF up more than 1.2% in the wake of the Fed rate decision. The three-day advance has extended into technical resistance heading into the weekly and monthly close, and the focus now turns to a potential inflection off this key zone. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts heading into November.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF was threatening a larger recovery after rebounding off key support and that, “From a trading standpoint. Losses would need to be limited to 7859 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8020 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.” USD/CHF has now rallied more than 2.2% off the monthly low with the advance testing confluent resistance at the top of a multi-month consolidation pattern. Looking for a reaction off this mark into the November open.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the monthly lows. The break of the weekly opening-range on Fed-day has extended into the 75% parallel with price now testing resistance at 8040- a region defied by the 100% extension of the advance off the monthly low and the April swing low. A topside breach / close above this threshold would expose the September / October swing highs at 8072/76. Strength surpassing this hurdle would be needed suggest that a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the broader September advance at 8120 and the August high / May low at 8172/85 (both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).
Initial support rests with the August low-day close (LDC) at 8007 and is backed by the objective October open at 7964. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the near-term uptrend with a break / close below the July LDC at 7911 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the yearly lows.
Bottom line: USD/CHF continues to coil within the broader September range, and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-month consolidation pattern. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 7964 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8076 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Keep in mind that Non-Farm Payrolls will be postponed for a second month amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and traders will be closely watching Wednesday’s ADP employment report for insight into labor market conditions. Stay nimble into the November open and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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