Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Pullback Eyes Uptrend Support
USD/CHF is pulling back after a monthly breakout with the bulls eyeing uptrend support into the August open. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.
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Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels
- USD/CHF July breakout fails at resistance- NFP reversal threatens deeper setback
- USD/CHF bulls eye July uptrend support- weekly / monthly opening-range breakouts to offer guidance
- Resistance 8123, 8174/86 (key), 8246- Support 8040, 7973/87 (key), 7911
USD/CHF is coming off a monthly breakout, with price now pulling back toward multi-week uptrend support. The focus is on whether bulls can defend this level to keep the July breakout intact. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that a reversal off the May downtrend threatened further losses and to, “look for a reaction into monthly open support- rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch…” USD/CHF broke lower later that day with price briefly dipping below the monthly open before rebounding off the 2025 low-day close (LDC) at 7911. A 3% rally off the lows broke through the May downtrend with the bulls being challenged into the start of August.
The NFP sell-off sparked a decline of more than 1.7% with the August opening-range now taking shape just below resistance. A proposed pitchfork off the yearly lows may be in play here and while the threat remains for a deeper pullback, losses should be limited to the lower parallel for the July breakout to remain viable.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF setting the weekly opening-range just below the objective monthly open at 8123. Key near-term resistance remains at the 50% retracement of the May decline / May low at 8174/85- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent objectives at the 61.8% retracement near 8246 and the 2023 low at 8333.
Weekly open support rests at 8094 with key support seen at 7973/87- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the July rally and the 100% extension of the near-term decline. Note that the lower parallel (blue) converges on this threshold over the next few days and a break / close below this zone would invalidate the multi-week advance / threaten a retest of the LDC at 7911 and the yearly lows at 7872.
Bottom line: USD/CHF broke out of a multi-month downtrend last week with the NFP reversal threatening to test the July breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 7973 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8186 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the August opening-range (weekly opening-range in focus now) with key inflation data on tap next week. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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