US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Breakout Looms Ahead of Key Jobs Report

US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade Levels (DXY)

US Dollar rally exhausts into key technical resistance early in the month
November opening-range intact ahead of NFPs- breakout to offer guidance
Non-Farm Payrolls expected to shape expectations for the December Fed meeting
DXY Resistance 100.16/42 (key), 101.55/60, 103- Support 98.99-99.08, 97.65/80 (key), 96.94

The US Dollar has been trading within the November opening-range just below resistance, with price action compressing ahead of Thursday’s key jobs report. The broader focus remains on a breakout from this zone for guidance on near-term direction, with the employment data expected to play a decisive role in shaping rate expectations into year-end. Battlelines drawn on the DXY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Weekly (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s US Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that DXY was, “coiled just below resistance, and the focus is on a breakout of the 97.50-99.66 range for guidance heading into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 97.50 IF the Dollar is higher on this stretch with a breach above 100.41 needed to validate a more significant breakout in price.” The range broke higher later that week with the index registering an intraweek high at 100.36 into the November open before pulling back. The monthly opening-range is set just below key resistance with major event risk on tap- looking for a breakout to drive the next directional move in DXY.

Weekly support rests with the November low and the April low-week close (LWC) at 98.99/99.08 with key support steady at 97.65/80- a region defined by the 2025 LWC and the 61.8% retracement of the September advance. Losses below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support seen at the 2021 swing high near 96.94.

Key resistance remains unchanged at the 2024 swing low / LWC at 100.16/42. A breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance with the next major technical consideration seen at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 52-week moving average at 101.55/60. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance seen at the 2016 high-close (HC) and the 2020 high at 103.

Bottom line: The U.S. Dollar has carved the November opening-range just below resistance- look for a breakout in the days ahead of guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 99 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 100.42 needed to mark resumption of the September uptrend.

Keep in mind the September Non-Farm Payrolls report is on tap Thursday, and traders will be closely eyeing the first major jobs report in months. Fed Fund Futures have continued to discount the December rate decision with market participants now pricing the probability of a cut next month to just 48%. With recent Fed commentary suggesting the committee remains deeply divided on the path of interest rates and with inflation still running well-above target, employment data will be critical ahead of next month’s policy meeting. Stay nimble ahead of the release and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Products and services available depend on your location and the entity holding your account. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available to US residents.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Capital - FOREX.com Canada Limited, 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. GAIN Capital – FOREX.com Canada Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

Complaints are taken very seriously at FOREX.com. You can view our complaints procedure here.

Know your advisor