US Midterm Forecast: The Key Risks for Traders to Watch Through the US Elections

US MIDTERM KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Prediction markets are pricing in nearly 75% odds of a Democratic sweep in this week’s US midterm elections, a development that would result in a split from the single party Republican rule of the past two years.
• Markets are always forward-looking, and a divided government is now the base case, so volatility may be relatively subdued if the results ultimately follow the script.
• A too-close-to-call result or delayed count could be one of the biggest risks, keeping short-term volatility elevated and likely weighing on the US dollar and US indices until there is confidence in the outcome.

US voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, to elect all 435 members of the House and 35 senators. Prediction markets are pricing in nearly 75% odds of a Democratic sweep, a development that would result in a split from the single party Republican rule of the past two years.

Source: Kalshi

Crucially, it’s worth noting that markets are always forward-looking, and a divided government is now the base case, so volatility may be relatively subdued if the results ultimately follow the script.

For markets, the ultimate result may matter less than whether it surprises. If Democrats take both chambers, a Republican president would face a Congress less likely to support new fiscal stimulus or major legislation. But the administration would retain significant influence over tariffs and other policy areas through executive actions. A change in congressional control could still mean more hearings and scrutiny, especially around technology, crypto and the rapid expansion of data centers.

For traders, the status of the vaunted “AI Trade” is one of the most important considerations. Rising public concern about data centers, electricity costs and their impact on local communities could bring more regulatory attention or delay projects. That could unsettle companies tied to AI infrastructure, even if it does not derail the longer-term investment cycle.

The dollar’s reaction will likely depend on Treasury yields, rate expectations and risk sentiment more than the result alone. A Republican sweep could revive expectations for further fiscal expansion, potentially supporting yields and the dollar. A Democratic sweep could constrain new fiscal initiatives, but existing tariff policy may not change quickly. If the expected outcome arrives, traders may see little lasting movement as attention returns to the Federal Reserve, economic data and corporate earnings.

Election results will come in Tuesday evening and night, but the new Congress does not take office until January 3. That gap limits the prospect of an immediate policy shift. Indeed, a too-close-to-call result or delayed count could be one of the biggest risks, keeping short-term volatility elevated and likely weighing on the US dollar and US indices until there is confidence in the outcome. still stir short-term volatility, though the election is only one of several competing forces this week.

US Dollar Technical Analysis – DXY Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

For forex traders, the 101.50 area on the US Dollar Index is a key technical level. The index is testing that zone after it previously acted as resistance and then support. A clear break lower could put the 100.50 area in view; holding above it would keep the recent range intact. In either case, price action and yields may offer a clearer signal than political headlines alone.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX