Weekly Crypto Technical Outlook: Confidence Returns, but Selectively

As 2026 progresses, the cryptocurrency market is beginning to show a less synchronized short-term dynamic. Demand has concentrated on specific assets, mainly cryptocurrencies with larger market capitalization and greater stability, while others continue to post consistent bearish moves. This behavior has resulted in a mixed environment, where isolated rebounds coexist with persistent weakness. In the absence of a catalyst that benefits the sector as a whole, this differentiation may persist over the coming sessions.

Performance of Major Cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• The cryptocurrency that posted the most consistent recovery of the week was Ethereum, with a gain of 6.46% over the past seven days, positioning it as the asset that has captured the strongest buying interest in recent sessions. In contrast, Litecoin was the most affected cryptocurrency, with a decline of -11.41%, reflecting a relevant short-term bearish bias.
   

• Looking at the past ten weeks, the crypto market as a whole continues to trade below levels seen toward the end of 2025. Cardano stands out with an accumulated decline of -34.38%, positioning it as the cryptocurrency with the weakest structural outlook in the medium term. Meanwhile, Ethereum shows a more moderate accumulated decline of -5.39%, making it one of the most stable cryptocurrencies during this period.
   

• A positive development is that the crypto market overall has managed to remain above its 2026 opening levels. In this context, Dogecoin leads gains with a rise of 16.34%, while Litecoin is currently the only cryptocurrency in negative territory, down -6.12%, highlighting that its weakness has been more pronounced relative to the rest of the market.
   

• As the benchmark asset, Bitcoin has once again attempted to move closer to the $100,000 area, while the weekly low has held near $90,000. This level, which previously acted as a key resistance, is now functioning as support, suggesting that a meaningful buying bias has begun to emerge at least in BTC over the short term.
   

• Overall, the combination of isolated rebounds and selective corrections confirms that indecision continues to dominate the crypto market. In the absence of relevant catalysts, this differentiated behavior may extend into the coming sessions, leading to increasingly unsynchronized price movements across cryptocurrencies.

Red to green colors – red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation perspective, several cryptocurrencies have started to lose alignment with Bitcoin’s price action. This is the case for Ripple, Dogecoin, and Cardano, whose correlation coefficients sit near 0.7, indicating that correlation remains positive but is becoming less significant. In the case of Litecoin, a clearer break is observed, as it currently shows a negative correlation near -0.25, meaning that while Bitcoin attempts to recover, Litecoin is posting inverse movements. It is important to remember that correlation coefficients can change over time.

This environment suggests that capital is prioritizing demand for specific assets, rather than betting on the crypto market as a whole. Larger-cap cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have managed to sustain more consistent bullish behavior, indicating that market preference is leaning toward larger and more liquid assets in the short term.

If this dynamic persists, Bitcoin may continue attempting to post gains while the rest of the market fails to follow in a synchronized manner. This could reinforce a general sentiment of indecision, with some cryptocurrencies showing strength while others continue to face significant weakness.

 

Is Bullish Channel Forming in Bitcoin?

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bitcoin was one of the cryptocurrencies that managed to close the week with positive performance. In recent weeks, price action has started to form higher lows and higher highs, aligning with the potential development of a new bullish channel, currently holding above the $90,000 level. That said, it is important to consider that if buying pressure fails to hold, this emerging structure could lose strength and give way once again to a more defined sideways range in the coming sessions.

Indicators:

• Both the RSI and the MACD remain above their neutral levels (50 for RSI and 0 for MACD). This behavior suggests that buying momentum and moving average strength have begun to dominate in recent sessions. If this dynamic persists, it could reinforce the relevance of short-term buying pressure in Bitcoin.

Key Levels:

• $103,400 – Key resistance: This level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period simple moving average. Moves toward this area could confirm the existence of a more aggressive bullish channel in the short term.
   
• $94,247 – Nearby barrier: A recent neutrality zone. If price remains around this level for an extended period, a more defined consolidation phase could develop.
   
• $90,355 – Major support: A level aligned with the 50-period simple moving average and the lower boundary of the potential bullish channel. A break below this area would put the current structure at risk and could bring back a bearish bias, similar to what was observed during the second half of 2025.

 

Litecoin Is the Most Affected Cryptocurrency of the Week

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Litecoin recorded the worst weekly performance among major cryptocurrencies. It currently maintains a dominant bearish trendline, in contrast to the recovery seen in Bitcoin. This trend once again points toward the 2025 lows, and as long as selling pressure persists, the bearish bias is likely to continue dominating Litecoin’s price action in the coming sessions.

Indicators:

• Unlike Bitcoin, both the RSI and MACD for Litecoin remain below their neutral levels, indicating a clear dominance of selling pressure. If these indicators continue to deteriorate, bearish momentum could intensify in the short term.

Key Levels:

• $79.99 – Key resistance: A level aligned with the bearish trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone would put the current bearish structure at risk.
   
• $74.28 – Nearby barrier: A recent neutrality zone. Prolonged price action around this level could favor the formation of a short-term sideways range.
   
• $63.50 – Major support: This level corresponds to the 2025 lows and represents the most relevant downside barrier. A break below this area could open the door to a more extended bearish trend, with clear selling dominance.

 

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25