Bitcoin, Gold Analysis: Ceasefire, Holidays, and US Data
Bitcoin, Gold Analysis: Ceasefire agreements are transitioning from speculation to reality ahead of the holiday season and Trump’s upcoming term. Gold’s rally has stalled below the $2,700 mark as haven demand wanes, while Bitcoin has retreated slightly below the psychological $100,000 level.
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Key Events:
- Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement
- US Data Release (Today): GDP, unemployment claims, durable goods orders, and Core PCE
Upcoming US data releases today may introduce volatility to the US Dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. With preliminary GDP results, durable goods orders, and Core PCE on the table, market movements could accelerate. However, the "Trump effect" is beginning to overshadow Fed policy, shifting the market focus to potential 2025 Trump-driven initiatives.
On the global front, German and Eurozone inflation data due Thursday and Friday could trigger volatility in euro pairs, which would inversely affect the dollar.
Ceasefire Hopes and Market Sentiment
The finalized ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has raised optimism for similar resolutions in the Israel-Gaza conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. The holiday season adds a layer of emotional relief, but questions linger over the potential for a "Santa Claus rally" in gold and Bitcoin, as geopolitical and economic factors remain highly influential.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin’s recent pullback near the $100,000 level, as highlighted in the previous analysis 'Is Bitcoin's Rally Losing Steam?' reflects heavy selling pressure at this psychological milestone. The festive season may slow momentum temporarily, with a potential recharge for the rally in January 2025. Key Levels:
Bullish Scenario: A firm close above $100,000 could fuel the next leg of the rally, targeting $113,000, $120,000, and eventually $145,000
Bearish Scenario: Initial support lies between $79,000 and $77,000. A deeper pullback could target key supports at $67,000 (mid-channel), $57,000, and $47,000 (bottom channel boundary).
Gold Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Gold continues to respect its long-term uptrend channel, established since the 2023 lows. The recent pullback was partly driven by optimism around the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which eased haven demand. However, the possibility of a Santa Claus rally could rekindle bullish momentum. Key Levels:
Bullish Scenario: A firm close back inside the channel and above $2,760 could push gold towards $2,890 and $3,050
Bearish Scenario: Short-term supports at $2,600 and $2,580 remain critical. A break below these levels could trigger a retracement to $2,530, $2,480, or even $2,300 in extreme cases.
--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves
Key Events:
- Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement
- US Data Release (Today): GDP, unemployment claims, durable goods orders, and Core PCE
Upcoming US data releases today may introduce volatility to the US Dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. With preliminary GDP results, durable goods orders, and Core PCE on the table, market movements could accelerate. However, the "Trump effect" is beginning to overshadow Fed policy, shifting the market focus to potential 2025 Trump-driven initiatives.
On the global front, German and Eurozone inflation data due Thursday and Friday could trigger volatility in euro pairs, which would inversely affect the dollar.
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Ceasefire Hopes and Market Sentiment
The finalized ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has raised optimism for similar resolutions in the Israel-Gaza conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. The holiday season adds a layer of emotional relief, but questions linger over the potential for a "Santa Claus rally" in gold and Bitcoin, as geopolitical and economic factors remain highly influential.
This image will only appear on cityindex websites!
This image will only appear on forex websites!
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin’s recent pullback near the $100,000 level, as highlighted in the previous analysis 'Is Bitcoin's Rally Losing Steam?' reflects heavy selling pressure at this psychological milestone. The festive season may slow momentum temporarily, with a potential recharge for the rally in January 2025. Key Levels:
Bullish Scenario: A firm close above $100,000 could fuel the next leg of the rally, targeting $113,000, $120,000, and eventually $145,000
Bearish Scenario: Initial support lies between $79,000 and $77,000. A deeper pullback could target key supports at $67,000 (mid-channel), $57,000, and $47,000 (bottom channel boundary).
Gold Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Gold continues to respect its long-term uptrend channel, established since the 2023 lows. The recent pullback was partly driven by optimism around the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which eased haven demand. However, the possibility of a Santa Claus rally could rekindle bullish momentum. Key Levels:
Bullish Scenario: A firm close back inside the channel and above $2,760 could push gold towards $2,890 and $3,050
Bearish Scenario: Short-term supports at $2,600 and $2,580 remain critical. A break below these levels could trigger a retracement to $2,530, $2,480, or even $2,300 in extreme cases.
--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves
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