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Gold Q4 2026 outlook: Resilience in the face of rallying dollar and yields

As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, bond yields were breaking out, and the dollar was higher across the board. Yet, remarkably, gold was still holding in the positive territory for the third quarter, even if it had weakened somewhat in September.

Gold 2026 Outlook: Fundamental XAU/USD analysis

Gold is heading into 2026 after one of its strongest years on record. Fuelled by aggressive central bank buying, a global interest rate cutting cycle and elevated safe-haven demand, the metal had surged nearly 65% and was on track to post its fifth consecutive monthly gain as well as a hat-trick of positive annual returns. The key question now is whether gold can hold on to those gains as we move through 2026.

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