Featured Trade Will RBA Torpedo AUDJPY
Watch the key resistance at 75.50/60 as RBA decision looms
Share this:
Short-term technical outlook on AUD/JPY (Tues, 04 Jun)
click to enlarge charts
Key elements
- Since 17 Apr 2019 high of 80.71, the AUD/JPY cross pair has been evolving within a medium-term downtrend within a descending channel on the backdrop of heightened risk aversion from trade tensions between U.S. and China (now spreading to other nations; Mexico & India) and the increasing odds of future interest rate cuts by Australian central bank, RBA.
- RBA monetary policy decision will be announced later today at 0430 GMT where markets have almost priced in fully a rate cut by 25bps to take the key policy cash rate down to 1.25%. The key will be the future guidance provided by RBA in its monetary policy statement on hints or economic grounds for further rate cuts down the road.
- In the shorter-term, the AUD/JPY has retested the minor pull-back of the former “Symmetrical Triangle” range support in yesterday, 03 Jun European session before it retreated in the U.S. session and a follow through in today, 04 Jun Asian session with a lower low (current intraday Asian session low at 75.08).
- Short-term momentum remains negative as indicated by the hourly RSI oscillator which still has further room to manoeuvre to the downside before it reaches an extreme oversold level at 16.
- The next significant supports rest at 74.30 (potential breakout exit target from the minor “Symmetrical Triangle” range) and 73.75/50 (the lower boundary of the major descending channel in place since 21 Sep 2017 and the 1.00 Fibonacci expansion of the down leg sequence from 17 Apr 2019 high to 25 Apr 2019 low projected from 30 May 2019 high)
- The key short-term resistance stands at 75.50/60 which is also the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high.
Key Levels (1 to 3 days)
Pivot (key resistance): 75.60
Supports: 74.30 & 73.75/55
Next resistances: 76.40
Conclusion
If the 75.60 key short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed, the AUD/JPY is likely to shape a further potential downleg to target the next supports at 74.30 and 73.75/55 next.
However, a break with an hourly close above 75.60 indicates a failure bearish breakdown from the “Symmetrical Triangle” range to see a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 76.40.
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD Q4 2026 Outlook: Euro at a Crossroads as Fed, ECB Tighten 9 25 2026
EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.
AUD/USD Q4 Outlook: RBA and Fed Hikes Set the Tone
AUD/USD enters Q4 with RBA and Fed hikes in focus as sticky inflation, rising unemployment and US dollar strength shape the Australian dollar.
USD/JPY Q4 2026 Outlook: Hawkish Fed Pricing Clashes With Intervention Risk
The year-end tug-of-war is clear: hawkish Fed pricing supports USD/JPY, while intervention risk limits the upside.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.