Gold Forecast: XAU/USD Could Approach $3K…IF it Can Break $2950 Resistance
The $3000 handle in gold may act as a magnet if current resistance at $2950 is broken.
Share this:
Gold Key Points
- Gold has rallied essentially non-stop since we flipped the calendars to January, gaining more than $300 over that period.
- The $3000 handle may act as a magnet if current resistance at $2950 is broken.
- Conversely, a break below last week’s low near $2960 would hint at a deeper pullback toward the 50-day EMA and previous-resistance-turned-support in the $2790-$2800 area.
After gold’s tremendous start to 2025, what else is there to say about the yellow metal?
Despite the ebb and flow of global trade war fears, central bank interest rate expectations, and the progress (or lack thereof) of peace talks in Eastern Europe, gold has rallied essentially non-stop since we flipped the calendars to January, gaining more than $300 over that period.
With prices now approaching the round $3000 handle, traders are starting to bet that the key figure may act as a magnet and draw prices toward it in the coming weeks. Of course, there are plenty of potential risks to gold bulls, running the gamut from successful peace negotiations in Ukraine, reduced deficits in the US and across the developed world, continued delays/reductions in US tariffs, and stalling central bank interest rate cuts among others, but for now, the impressive momentum in the yellow metal should be respected.
Gold Technical Analysis – XAU/USD Daily Chart
Source: StoneX, TradingView
As outlined above, gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern in mid-January, eventually stretching up to test the “measured move” objective of the pattern near $2950 before stalling over the last week.
While the immediate target from the triangle pattern has been reached, the lack of a meaningful pullback so far suggests that bulls are eager to buy up any near-term dips in the yellow metal, potentially setting the stage for a break above $2950 resistance in the coming days. In that scenario, gold could quickly surge up to the key $3K level as the last bears throw in the towel.
Conversely, a break below last week’s low near $2960 would hint at a deeper pullback toward the 50-day EMA and previous-resistance-turned-support in the $2790-$2800 area.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Gold forecast: XAU/USD could take a larger dive after the big rise in yields
Gold prices have been falling in the last few days after last week’s post-FOMC pop faded amid rising interest rate expectations, higher oil prices and a strengthening US dollar. As before, I wasn’t convinced gold would thrive in the current macro backdrop.
WTI Crude Oil Mulls Bounce from $90
Having fallen 17% from its cycle highs in just five days and now holding above $90, perhaps it could be time for crude oil to bounce over the near term.
Gold, silver slammed as hawkish Fed repricing reignites dollar upside
Gold and silver had held up surprisingly well against surging US yields. Wednesday’s DXY breakout may have changed that equation.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.